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The crisis in Venezuela has caused a geopolitical implosion in the international system that places Donald Trump at the head of a coalition of countries that breaks regional blocs and forces to force diplomatic maneuvers that attempt to balance the power of the White House and only promote the permanence of Nicolás Maduro's power.
The President of the United States seizes Maduro and causes a domino effect in the world order that has no background. The situation in Venezuela is already a labyrinth and no roadmap leads to a democratic transition without conflict.
Faced with the call for dialogue launched by Uruguay and the European Union, as well as Maduro's letter to the Vatican asking for Francisco's intervention, representatives of the Lima group (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay and Peru), They saw these movements as a mere diplomatic ploy that benefits only the Venezuelan populist leader.
"(…) The dialogue initiatives promoted by various international actors have been manipulated by the Maduro regime, transforming them into delaying tactics to perpetuate their power, and therefore consider that any political or diplomatic initiative developed must aim to support the Constitutional Road Map presented by the National Assembly and the President in charge, Juan Guaidó, with a view to The peaceful transition between Venezuelans, resulting in the exit of the dictatorial regime of Maduro, allows the call for elections and the restoration of democracy in Venezuela", supports point 4 of the statement of the Lima group in Ottawa.
Even more: in Ottawa, there were representatives from the European Union (EU), France, Germany, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the United Kingdom United, who have not withdrawn from the debates nor called for another diplomatic language to show the reluctance of the group of alternatives proposed by the Uruguayan government and Francisco in Santa Marta.
Trump's persistence with Maduro implies a diplomatic triumph of the White House. State Secretary Michael Pompeo, Security Advisor John Bolton and National Security Director Mauricio Claver are key players in a political machine that puts the populist leader in the ropes. Trump has managed to unite the countries of Latin America, Europe, Asia and the Middle East in a crusade that has just begun and ends in a vacuum.
However, this inter-regional bloc has caused silent earthquakes in geopolitical units that are already experiencing recurrent crises. Mercosur is seeking its own institutional flexibility and, with the situation in Venezuela, two different positions have emerged: Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay support Guaidó, while Uruguay has a more neutral vision.
And the European Union, flanked by certain nationalisms and complicated by the departure of Brexit, is now facing a position that displays its ambivalent personality: its main members recognized Guaidó (France, Spain, Germany), while its institutional representation (EU) is still resisting taking this diplomatic step.
The geopolitical noise caused by the Trump offensive contrasts with the silence of Russia and China, Maduro's two most powerful international allies.. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have invested millions of dollars in Venezuela and will not accept a democratic transition led by Guaidó if the United States does not respect their investments. Washington listens to the proposals from Moscow and Beijing, but still does not give favorable signals. This lack of response benefits Maduro, who plays his cards to prevent his dome of generals from repeating the parable of Julius Caesar and Marcus Brutus.
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