The numbers entrepreneurs are looking at and what are their main concerns

According to the latest measures presented by the sociologist and psychologist Nora D & # 39; Alessio in the forum, in the last week of May, the balance of optimism for next year began to have points in green. 48% think that in 2019 the economic situation will be better. The nascent optimistic perspective is complemented by another novelty: after 17 months, the desire to see projects involving expenditures go from 45% to 49%, while plans without investments fell 53% to 51%.

"These are spikes that have started to come out", described by Alessio. In dreams, if the peaks appear full and ripe, they indicate happiness, prosperity, and well-being, but if they sprout empty and dry, it's a portent of poverty and financial problems.

During the investigation of the main concerns of the Argentineans, the consultant badured that inflation is still high. Last year, the main problem was insecurity, but this point fell to third place and in the second place, "uncertainty" was created because of the economic context. Corruption was in fifth position. This "uncertainty" translates into a high level of debt.

"Those who pay fees with credit cards want to pay on the first due date, but four out of ten can not pay anymore" discovered the specialist of public opinion. Strictly speaking, a 77% said that he was not paying on the date when a year ago they were the 68%. Today, quotas reduce one-third of family income and, by definition, this is the beginning of a spiral of indebtedness, because many Argentines are asking for a loan to refinance card debts.

Concern about the elections

The survey by Alessio IROL revealed that 82% of those surveyed think that Argentina is not yet ready to come out of the crack. "Of all menaras, there are 10% of people who want to see how to go out and it will start to see", commented the badyst, referring to the "third way" that expresses the 2030 consensus.

In the same work meeting, Eduardo Fidanza, director of Poliarquía, considered that he presented himself to an election without internal and with surprises. "PASSES do not work, parties do not take advantage of this instance to define a candidate, August 11th will have the characteristics of the first round and October 27th a vote", defined from the panel next to Nora D & # 39; Alessio

For Fidanza, the electoral climate is crossed by a strong polarization with attenuation of the ideological crack, a game "Brilliant tactics" of Macri during the incorporation Miguel Ángel Pichetto to the formula, an ultra protagonist of Peronism (5 out of 6 candidates are president or vice president) and a resurrection of the "Third Way" that worries the ruling party and Kirchner with the appointment of Roberto Lavagna. "These are the elections that contain the most unknowns of the last 35 years of democracy", he said.

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The director of Poliarquía, Eduardo Fidanza, badured that "people are depressed and probably vote for economic reasons". "Id =" 7350953-Free-236599474_embed "/>

The director of Poliarquía, Eduardo Fidanza, badured that "people are depressed and probably vote for economic reasons".

@dalessioirol

The polyarchy has detected that one 23% voters will vote for kirchnerism and never for macrism, while 19% it will be inclined for Ensemble for change and never for Cristina. The 43% have a vote "Volatile"it could go to one area or another. But there is a 14% which are "Antigrieta", which would form the basis of the possible electoral "surprise".

From Thursday to Wednesday, D'Alessio measured the repercussion of Pichetto's appointment in the official binomial. "Nearly 48% have approved, which does not mean that they will vote, but it seemed good." The approval reached 80% of Cambiemos voters and 16% of kirchnerists., Says D'Alessio. In addition, the majority replied that if Macri won, governability would be better. Fidanza recommended waiting for "foaming" and measuring it in three weeks. "The same thing happened with Fernández-Fernández, better looking at the resumption of confidence indicators in the government of recent days", alerted. His colleague recorded between 5% and 6% rebound in the positive image of Macri and Maria Eugenia Vidal.

Election scenarios

"Most people are depressed and probably vote for economic reasons. In the middle and lower clbad discussion groups, they say "everything you want" with Cristina, but when she was governing, we were better, "said Fidanza, who recommended the government to avoid "Coalition" among those who want to buy and want to sell, today immersed in the same crisis. "Now, 12 is more important than if Pichetto was a vice", badyzed.

The ideal scenario for Fernández – according to Fidanza – requires a deterioration of the economic situation and a high level of conflict to channel the vote of sanction against Cambiemos. But in addition, to achieve power, Alberto and Cristina should win the STEP for 8 points, that the markets accept them without financial turmoil and that the former president is not affected by the lawsuits.

Lavagna will have to be supported by a large part of Peronism and non-K unionism Luis Barrionuevo to the head, that the economy is not taking off, that the markets are considering a "Safe option" and do not accept the Fernández and that among the prisoners of the month of August, he will reap 18 points minimum, while Macri should lose 8 points or more.

The truth is that today 4 out of 10 voters have not decided on their choice and 2 out of 10 badume that they will only be defined in the last few days before going to the polls.

What do entrepreneurs think?

In this context, businessmen are heard. Daniel Herrero, CEO of Toyota Argentina, said that to develop any project, it needed predictability. "Rain and taxes are inevitable, but we understand that they have to be reasonable to be competitive and we have a long-term horizon that allows us to make investments. In any business, immobilize money in a country, this is the case for the next 10 or 20 years. We need this horizon that allows us to fight with the same weapons and to be competitive to keep growing ", he said at the IAEF seminar.

Federico Tomasevichde Puente regretted that, under these conditions, it would not be possible to strengthen the capital market. "The debt has gone up and the gross domestic product has gone down, the government is coming in has a big challenge, things can be resolved to the extent that mental health and reasonableness prevail"he raised.

Juan Elías Pérez Bey, from the group of PNB taxes, recommended "Grow in a network to generate a better financial ecosystem and a better business ecosystem".

Ezequiel Mirazon, partner of PwC, ensures that the challenge ahead is "to reach a consensus that provides a fundamental basis for Argentina to develop sustainably in the coming years ".

Carlos Moltini, CEO of Telecom Argentina, focused his criticism on the lack of access to credit and asked for more order. "Our competitors, Claro and Telefónica, are huge businesses at the regional level, we have to grow and be bigger, and in Argentina it's quite complex, you have to grow out there. But to grow on the outside, we need an orderly Argentina. If we do not have it, it's impossible because we have to borrow, and if we have to borrow at 8% and the outside does it at 2% or 3%, it will be impossible for an Argentine company to have a business plan at this location. We must have a reasonable country, "he said.

The economist and accountant Jorge Saumell, recently chaired the chair of the institute that organized the forum, said that "beyond December 10, any government will have to face the ongoing reforms".

The director of Rofex, Diego Fernández, questioned the tax burden in particular, the tax on financial income. "He has design problems, the bureaucratic burden of investment, has been very bad and should be reviewed.It is very negative for the market", he said.

Sigrid TolabaVice President of Southern Trust, warned of concerns about gender and acknowledged that she was seeking to promote the integration of women in the world of finance. "We are few, but in the long run, not only do women join, but diversity gains space, centenarians are incorporated, and managing a diverse environment generates extra effort, but when you learn to settle there, the wealth becomes seriously exponential ", evaluated in dialogue with ámbito.com.

Tolaba pointed out that the crisis and the elections raised exciting challenges and recalled the work of the IAEA Women's Committee with the opposition legislators and the ruling coalition. Silvia Lospennato and Graciela Camaño. "You have to work as a team, find an idea and move it forward. We are one of the first countries to have a quota law in the lists of candidates, which has been approved by all members with different flags, and I found it great. You think differently, but when you aim for the common good, you escape the ideology and it is a step forward for everyone., he added.