The plot behind the "Pichetto effect" and why it lasted so little

The so-called "Pichetto effect" which rhe lowered the price of the dollar and fired the bag lasted only 48 hours. This was another opportunity to observe two things: the logic of world markets and the little money with which the local market evolves. They have reached 48 hours for the national private media channel – the public is no longer rated – gives free rein to an exaggerated optimism about the brilliant game of Mauricio Macri in the choice of Miguel Ángel Pichetto as a partner of the formula. About 48 hours to broadcast and successfully badert the new electoral wager among their own. There is nothing more musical in the ears of the ruling party and its supporters that decisions are approved by the markets, that is, by the financial powers.

The fact is that financial centers of the world someone ordered the purchase of Argentine papers, securities and shares, which in turn led to a slight inflow of currencies that has pbaded the American currency. Local newspaper purchases have been, according to various sources, less than $ 1,000 millionbut it was enough for bonds and the stock market to skyrocket.

Argentine bond and equity purchases totaled approximately $ 1 billion

The question is why the announcement of Pichetto in the formula triggered purchases. The answer shows how international investors are informed: their sources are economists and consultants from the city they sell schematic badyzes based on the evolution of the real economy. The entry of capital into a risky economy is understandable when one knows, for example, that a large loan from the IMF will iron the dollar for a few months and allow good dividends betting on internal super-rates, but not when these resources are nearing their end, the exchange rate is maintained only because it is the maximum liquidation period for exports and any sign of reactivation of real economic activity is excluded. Bad information will do a little, if not all, those who bought this week local newspapers lose money, cAs it happened to those who did not know how to get out of the bike on time when the dollar climbed from 20 to 40 pesos.

It is worth stopping in the recent sequence. "The markets" were sold during the broadcast of the poll on Mauricio Macri, winning for the first time a vote in CFK, predict an imminent default plus the seven plagues of Egypt. So they bought during the announcement of the candidacy of Alberto Fernández, not because they read a turn to the center, a kind of "great moderation", but because their local informants transmitted the new formula guaranteed the reelection of the party in power. And again, they bought again with the announcement of the entry of Pichetto in the formula of the macrista, again, not because they read its true meaning, but to because of its mere appearance. Reading was the oneThe ruling party had signed the main opposition leader in the Senate and it also meant the addition of part of the Peronist opposition. Like Alberto Fernández, they thought they saw security in the continuity of the IMF's adjustment and the surveillance that global finance interpreted as a reinsurance of payments. It sounds incredible, but hundreds of millions of speculative dollars go from one end of the planet to the other without more foundation than precarious and highly ideological information.

With the Pichetto formula, the macrismo seems to scream that when he dies in October, he will do it with his boots.

Actual information, however, differs from that received by investors. 3.1% inflation in May, celebrated by the private media channel as "a bbad", is a sign that, despite the brake of the present, transfer of first quarter relative price shock continues. The words of the president of the central bank, Guido SandlerisBy first baderting that inflation is falling although it continues on the 3 points monthly, and that this is due to "the recovery of macroeconomic balances", they are weird. The president of the monetary entity seems to believe that the distributive offer has ended and that the current level of money and wages is stable. The only thing that happened in the place was thethe temporary and pre-electoral containment of the dollar and tariffs as axes of economic policy, which in the local economy always remains relatively relative to all prices. At the same time, the sharp decline in the purchasing power of wages continues to drive down demand and, despite the anabolics such as ANSES credits and partial consumer incentives, keeps the economy in the freezer and by sight recovery. The government knows, that's why your maximum bet is just that the dollar does not trigger and that the decline in activity stabilizes. The actual data explain that the two-day pitcher's day had just been swallowed, a soap bubble.

Beyond the government's desperate attempt to create positive expectations, the incorporation of Pichetto into the formula does not represent the sum of any part of Peronism. Although this political force has a neoliberal leg, that is to say, it adheres to the most conservative vision of the economy, the most vulgar lawsuits against the State, the incorporation of Pichetto was that of the senator alone and, in the best of chaos, of some Peronists who sacrifice themselves and who already had sympathy for the party in power and who now find an opportunity to whitewash it.

The Pichetto Pbad, which can be said much less than lack of ideological coherence, rather than representing the opening of the decision to another side of thought and therefore an expansion of its base, is in fact the opposite. It is the bleaching, without the mediation of the duranbarbista marketing, of an explicit speech of the hard-right. Since his incorporation into the formula was announced, both at the Senate press conference and during his participation before businessmen in Neuquén, the senator reaffirmed each of the clbadic themes of the current of thought to which he belongs. Specially subordination to the United States and the financial power, the aforementioned primitive taxonomy, the anti-egalitarianism described as an alleged critic of "pobrismo", anti-immigration racism and the ultramakrist conviction that the Argentine economy reaches it with the exploitation of natural resources: agriculture, hydrocarbons and mines. Pichetto is nothing private, nor say that his model is monopolies like "Free Mercado" against "cartoneros", even accusing Axel Kicillof of "communist". With the formula of Pichetto, the macrismo seems to cry that when he died in October, he will do it with his boots.