The political irresponsibility of Brexit – 03/10/2019

Due to irresponsibility – based on ignorance, levity or demagoguery – politicians everywhere promise the inaccessible. The United Kingdom proposes, for these days, a borderline case. The irresponsibility of British politicians at the origin of Brexit was great, so called the break with the European Union: this block of 28 countries without borders, neither for trade nor for the inhabitants. They are 28 but it's like they're one.

Without considering any "scenarios", without quantifying the undesirable effects, without predicting the cost-benefit and political-social costs, part of the English leadership has led the country to chaos.

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They said that the United Kingdom contributed more to Europe than the United Kingdom and that the European Union tied the hands of the British government, preventing it from taking measures such as the reduction of l & # 39; immigration. A large part of British citizenship was convinced. A referendum was held in 2016. Everyone was asked: "Do you want us to stay in the European Union or do we want to leave?" 48% answered "stay" and 52% "leave". And now the consequences are coming. On the 29th of this month, the deadline for the UK is to appease the divorce or to withdraw empty-handed. The "hard Brexit" (departure without agreement) would be devastating.

° The British economy will experience isolation. According to the Bank of England, the British economy would be reduced by 8% in one year.

° The UK will have to pay to leave. The European Union is asking for $ 50,000 million for various concepts. This is a questionable sum, but whatever the final figure, leave will have a price.

° The cost of living will be more expensive. The food, largely imported, will increase in price. The import of components will increase the industrial costs. And, despite the promised tax cut, the Institute of Fiscal Studies says the state will be short of funds for that.

° It will be very difficult to compensate for the loss of the European market. It was hoped that Brexit would allow more practical agreements with the United States and other countries. But President Trump said: "If they do not reach an agreement, they will not be able to trade with us." And the uncertainty created by Brexit will make it difficult to find excellent short-term trading partners.

° Investments will fall. Now, investing in the UK, it's investing at the same time in the other 27 countries; among them, Germany and France.

° Funding will also be difficult and expensive. The UK owes three times more than it does in product. The international financial market will limit access to credit and impose higher interest rates.

° The European Banking Authority will go to Paris. The Authority advises UK-based banks to prepare for the post-Brexit situation, and many of them are ready to migrate.

° London will lose its importance as a financial center. Today, London is the world leader after New York. Maintain this will be impossible after the separation of Europe.

° British airlines can not open new routes to the continent. This will prevent them from flying to a European airport that is not on their current routes and that is a starting point for different parts of the world.

° The European Medicines Agency will visit Amsterdam. It is responsible for evaluating, authorizing and monitoring drugs throughout the European Union. You have to move because you will not be able to meet in London ° There are companies that manufacture the suitcases. The Institute of Directors, which includes businessmen and senior executives, conducted research among its 1,200 members and found that 16% of companies plan to move to another country.

° Airbus will stop manufacturing in England. The company manufactures the wings and landing gear of Airbus aircraft, in addition to the components. It employs 14,000 people.

° Protectionism will have restrictions. It has been said that the United Kingdom, when it leaves the European Union, would protect its domestic market from the invasion of imported products. But the room for maneuver will be limited. The World Trade Organization prevents or limits tariff barriers and, in addition, the reduction of imports also limits exports, given the retaliation of other countries. .

° Scotland can declare itself independent. In 2017, the Scots held a referendum in Scotland to say they wanted – as many claimed – independence. He won the "no", but the "yes" gathered a substantial minority: 45%. This minority can become a majority if the Scots are to choose between being part of England or Europe.

° Oil is in Scotland. In the North Sea, Scots have reserves for 20 years. Scotland also owns 60% of British fishing.

° Wales will lose most of its income. The Welsh voted in favor of the exit of the European Union, but they would now be the most affected: 62% of their exports would go to the European Union. With the break, they will lose much of this market.

In Ireland, peace can end. Brexit would revive the conflict between 1968 and 1998 in Northern Ireland with waves of violence between guerrillas, paramilitaries and security forces. Catholics have struggled to make Northern Ireland part of the Republic of Ireland; Protestants, to keep it in the UK. With the 1998 peace agreement, Northern Ireland remained British, but for all intents and purposes, the border that separated it from the Republic was erased. No immigration, no customs, no supervision. Nothing With Brexit, visas, checks and customs will come back. This will recreate the situation that led to this conflict.

To measure the possible consequences of what is proposed to a society is the duty of those who direct it and those who aspire to direct it.

Rodolfo Terragno is a politician and diplomat. Ambbadador of Argentina to UNESCO.

Copyright Rodolfo Terragno and Clarín, 2019.