The provinces of Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos, underwater in 2100

According to the projections of a scientific survey, in the year 2100 part of the provinces of Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos, as well as many regions of Latin America, would be below sea level due to climate change.

“Global warming has raised sea level by about 8 inches since 1880, and the rate of rise is accelerating. Rising sea levels greatly increase the likelihood of damaging storm surge flooding, ”the research warns.

According to the report of Central Climate, various points of Entre Ríos, where rivers flow Uruguay and Paraná, as well as the province of Buenos Aires, near Samborombón Bay, they will be underwater in 80 years.

Antarctic ice retreat reaches point of no return

Projections indicate that with an increase in global temperature of 0.5 ° C, the waters could rise by about 70 centimeters in the central area of ​​the province of Buenos Aires and the Paraná delta. With an increase of 1 ° C, the water level would rise to more than 2 meters, as shown on the interactive map of Central Climate.

With a Global temperature increase of 2 degrees, The waters would cover part of the territories of Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos would pass nearly 5 meters. An increase of 3 ° C would mean water above 6 meters, while at 4 ° C, the situation would be catastrophic, with nearly 9 meters high, according to the projections of the American NGO which analyzes and reports of climatology.

Projections show that sea level rise would flood the coastal areas of the city of Buenos Aires, the southern suburbs of Buenos Aires, La Plata, and towns like Campana and Zárate. Towards the south of the coast of Buenos Aires, the worst-case scenario would make all the towns disappear as far as Mar del Plata.

The Earth’s global temperature is rising

The 2015 Paris Agreement stipulates that the temperature increase should be kept as close as possible to 1.5 ° C, although Scientific forecasts warn that this figure will be exceeded between 2030 and 2050.

Scientists point out that if humanity takes urgent action against global warming, the global temperature may drop below 1.5 ° C by 2100.

Coastal cities sink four times faster

According to the report Climate change 2021: the basis of physical science (Climate change 2021: physical basis) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) I know expects that by 2030 the average global temperature will be 1.5 ° C or 1.6 ° C higher than pre-industrial levels in the five greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

By the middle of the century, the threshold of +1.5 ºC will have been exceeded in all scenarios: the most optimistic indicate that it will be exceeded by 0.10 ºC and the most pessimistic, by 1.0 ºC. Assuming that absolutely everything is done to combat climate change, the global temperature, after rising 1.5 ° C, will be 1.4 ° C higher than in the pre-industrial era by 2100, a indicated the IPCC.

Equally disheartening scenarios in the rest of Latin America

In Latin America and the Caribbean, more than 27 percent of the population lives in coastal areas, and an estimated 6 to 8 percent live in high or very high risk areas affected by coastal hazards.

According to the report The State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2020, published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on August 17, sea ​​level in the Caribbean rose an average of 3.6 millimeters per year between 1993-2020. This is a higher rate than the world average, which was 3.3 millimeters per year.

Why the Atlantic Ocean is widening by 3 centimeters per year

In Mexico, the Cancun beachesas well as zcoastal onas of Yucatan Peninsula, Quintana Roo, Campeche and Tabasco they will become a submerged heritage before the next century, according to Climate Central.

In Colombia, areas near Barranquilla (the mouth of the Magdalena River into the Caribbean Sea) and to the border with Panama (the Gulf of Urabá) are those that will also disappear underwater. The zoned from Lake Maracaibo and Tucupita, to Venezuela, will also be underwater according to an interactive map.

What the IPCC has said about sea level rise

The global level of the oceans to augment about 20 cm since 1900, and the growth rate has nearly tripled in the past decade, according to the IPCC report. The melting of the ice caps in Antarctica and Greenland is now the main factor, before the melting of the glaciers.

If global temperatures rise by 2 ° C, ocean levels will rise by about half a meter in the 21st century. And it will continue to climb to nearly two meters by 2300, double what the IPCC predicted in 2019. Due to the uncertainty associated with ice caps, scientists cannot rule out rising levels of water up to two meters by 2100..

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