The PSOE triumphs big and the political atomization is consolidated

The victory of the PSOE with 29% of the votes and 123 deputies gives Pedro Sanchez the current President of the Government of Spain the opportunity to form a government to remain in office for a new term. At the age of 47, he took office as president in a circumstantial way in June 2018 after the adoption of a motion of censure against Mariano Rajoy. These results imply not only an approval of its eleven-month mandate, but also legitimize its endowment through votes. The Socialist Party has found in these elections the importance lost since the 2011 elections.

The Popular Party, led by Pablo Casado, suffered a crushing defeat by winning only 17% and 65 deputies, against 33% of the 2016 elections, which would prevent it from leading a right-wing coalition. The loss of voice of the PP can be explained by those obtained by the Vox de Santiago Abascal with 10% and 24 members. The emergence of this party nationwide in such a short time has brought surprise and dismay to those who thought that extreme positions had disappeared from the peninsula. In fact, they have always existed and formed a mainstream within the PP, which was encouraged by the new circumstances in other European countries and the United States had the courage to express itself independently.

The closure of the ballot box will begin a period of difficult negotiations to bring together half plus one of the 350 members of the Chamber of Deputies in order to invest the new president and form a coalition government for the first time. The percentage obtained by the PSOE suggests that Pedro Sánchez will have more opportunities to obtain the votes that accompany it in the new mandate, but he will have to demonstrate a broad criterion and a lot of generosity to meet the demands of members without alienating aspirants' ambitions for democracy. your own party.

The results of Catalonia have confirmed the strength of the separatist currents and the persistence of the problem, the solution of which will not be easy to find with any of the options of the government. The disappearance of the PP. obtaining a single deputy confirms the failure of the confrontation and the need to find a means of dialogue to defuse the conflict. The triumph of Republican Esquerra (ERC) could facilitate communication with the PSOE since this party supported the motion of censure against the government of Mariano Rajoy.

The PSOE must choose its partners among Podemos, which got 14% of the vote, as well as 42 MPs and citizens, who have reached a slightly higher percentage, which represents 57 seats, thus improving the results of the 2016 election with 32 deputies. The choice of Podemos would mean a left turn and the inclusion of other minor parties while Ciudadanos would imply the badertion of a center policy more in keeping with the trend of the current one. PSOE leadership. This partnership would also strengthen relations with the European Union and joint work with France and Germany.

The confirmation of the disappearance of bipartisanship and the beginning of coalition governments open a new stage in the political life of Spain. The bipartisanship had the merit of creating conditions of stability but also contributed to the reification of life within political parties and prevented any possibility of confrontation of ideas. In this new scenario, leaders have had to face criticism from outside and in negotiations with potential partners. Outside the electoral race, they will have to present specific programs and policies that can be translated into government actions.

Finally, it should be remembered that Spain was one of the countries most punished by the international financial crisis of 2008/2009 and that it took several years to adjust and order the macroeconomic accounts , especially under the government of Mariano Rajoy. GDP has recently recorded positive rates in 2014, with a measly 1.4%, followed by 3.6% in 2016. Last year, it had experienced 2.6% growth and the unemployment rate had fallen to 14.5%. The consolidation of the financial situation and the continuity of the reforms will still require a lot of effort and imagination to fulfill some of the promises made for the sole purpose of winning votes.

The author is diplomatic. International Policy Analyst.