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On Thursday morning, in a video recorded on the border between Colombia and Venezuela, the former FARC negotiator, Iván Márquez, announced the birth of a new guerrilla. Accompanied by other important controls such as Romagna, The paisa, Aldinever and The fool IvanBy a document that he called manifesto, they resumed their arms because of violations of the implementation of the peace agreement signed in 2016 by the former FARC guerrillas and the Colombian state. . As expected, two months after the local elections. and the regional political sectors have used this announcement as a workaholic. Both blame themselves for the possible resurgence of a new guerrilla war.
The confusion is total in the political, academic and specialized world. In any case, the dissent groups have existed for some time, they are not as powerful as we think and it will take them several more years to get closer to the current situation of the FARC at the end of the process of peace. The x-ray is as follows.
On one side, small groups of dissidents began to emerge shortly before the signing of the peace agreement. There are currently 23 groups of 1,800 former guerrillas and 300 to 400 new recruits. They operate in 85 municipalities out of just over 1,100 that the country has. It should be noted that at the end of the peace process, the FARC guerrillas of the day were operating in 300 municipalities, demobilized 13,000 people and handed over 8,000 weapons. So, in the worst case, dissent now accounts for 25% of what the FARC were. It is then indicated on a municipal map.
Secondly, these 23 groups of armed dissidents do not constitute a single structure. Those in the Colombian Pacific are totally independent of those in the eastern plains. Thus, it is possible to provide a control unit in 15 or 16 of these groups. However, in addition to this dissent in the arms, there was a political dissent, emanating from a group of former FARC leaders who were not comfortable with the degree of Accordance with the agreement, speak of treason on the part of the Colombian state and several of them. they had judicial investigation procedures for committing crimes after signing. The news is that these two dissidents, the navy and politics, could unite. This could lead to the birth of a new guerrilla war, that is to say to revive an armed political conflict.
Third, the Venezuelan factor is at the heart of the possibility of the emergence of a new guerrilla. Currently, the border between Colombia and Venezuela is a scene of criminal conflict. The guerrillas of the ELN control the Arauca department and the neighboring state of Apure in Venezuela. Also Colombian and Venezuelan Catatumbo, as well as an area of the Cúcuta metropolitan area. The Gulf Clan, a post-demobilization paramilitary group, controls other border areas and dissident groups of the FARC are present on three points. Both ELN and dissidents announced their defense of Nicolás Maduro and the "Bolivarian Revolution". In fact, in many parts of Venezuela, these groups resemble paramilitary structures. Similarly, due to the corruption of the Bolivarian armed forces, the border is flooded with weapons and illegal armed groups have access to them at low prices. In short, Venezuela's role will be fundamental in determining the future of these groups.
Finally, more than 10,000 former guerrillas out of the 13,000 who have left their weapons are being reinstated. Márquez's announcement may disrupt the dissent, which is why the government must protect these spaces where veterans are, guarantee them conditions of reintegration and prevent dissent from growing rapidly. In addition, the security balance of the Ducian government is not encouraging, it is necessary to adapt the military tactics.
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