The reason Covid deaths increased 9% in one week in Argentina

The data has attracted attention: while in almost all of South America Covid deaths continue to decline, in Argentina last week’s figure was a Top 9 percent. The alarms were immediately triggered, but the explanation of the phenomenon would not have to do with a premature lethality virus.

According to the Our World in Data site, over the past seven days there were in the country 1,128 deaths, whereas the previous week they had been counted 1.031. The difference would mark a priori a change in trend compared to what had happened since August.

Deaths were decreasing in Argentina, as in the rest of the region. Last week was no exception for the continent, but yes for our country. In Brazil, deaths have fallen by 10%; in Colombia, 22; in Venezuela, 3; in Peru, 15 years old; in Chile, 13; in Bolivia, 1; in Ecuador, 19; in Paraguay, no change, 0; Uruguay, 62.

What happened next in Argentina, which recorded this increase in almost ten points in seven days. Bugle reviewed the records of the last few days and the conclusion was that the 162 deaths reported on Monday they should be prorated at least until August 24.

Even if, strictly speaking, according to official sources, the delay could go back even further in time. That is to say, the old and the familiar “Late charge” he redid his thing. At least until this day, August 24, according to figures updated with the last part of this Monday, there was 112,511 deaths. Now there is 112,673.

All this reveals, on the one hand, that the current figure is not a photo, but a film of at least 15 days. On the other hand, that the number of deaths reported in the past two weeks was inferior to reality. This problem exists from the beginning pandemic, it is rarely noticed, but is exposed whenever a luxating event occurs.

The explanation of the “rear load” is consistent with other given. Not so long as the number of Covid cases has been dropping for several weeks – in recent weeks the drop was due. 24 percent-, since, as we know, the death curve rises later. The most important thing is that the occupancy rate of resuscitation beds continues to fall: today, those intended for Covid have 2,293 patients.

Bugle he consulted infectologist Eduardo López, government adviser. “That’s the million dollar question,” he replied. Why the death toll does not decrease in proportion to those reported elsewhere. At the end of August, in 17 months of pandemic, they died nearly 9 individuals per hour in Argentina. He is an important character ”.

López added that for him it is a mystery why the number of deaths is not falling anymore and, also, why he has these fluctuations. “The response from the Ministry of Health is always a ‘overdue shipment’. Another explanation I can’t find. On the other hand, the number of people in intensive care has decreased ”.

Bugle consulted the Ministry of Health, which confirmed that “There are death notifications from previous months”, although they did not add any additional details. This reveals, once again, that much of what we call the present pandemic is the past, due to the slowness with which data is loaded into the National Health Surveillance System.

The statement from the national party is still truncated: “The notification and the burden of vaccinated people, new cases and deaths are responsibility of each jurisdiction”. A scenario which in turn leaves a troubling question: the circulation of the Delta variant for now we place it in the future, although that future is probably in part this present.

PS