The Reasons Why 2018 Will not Escape the "Curse of Even Years"

Argentina in 2018 will not be able to break the curse of even years, the one for which, since 2011 and far from all magic, it is obvious that governments take advantage of when there are no Elections to adopt less friendly measures and invariably ends with zero growth, a fall and / or a recession. At the beginning of the year, it seems that the spell is broken, but at least five of the seven invasions have arrived and everything has changed: according to Ecolatina, the drought, the adjustment of regulated prices, the movement of rates exchange rate and fiscal and monetary policies have weighed on growth prospects.

After a year-on-year decline of nearly 3% ia In the second quarter, GDP will also show a decline in the second half, although this is more moderate as the impact of the drought will be diluted in the coming months, indicates the report of the consulting firm founded by Roberto Lavagna. [19659002Selonletravaillacombinaisondeceschocsnégatifsconduitensembleàpenserquelabaissedel'activitéseraencoreplusimportantequelesdernièresannéespaires"Enfaitmalgrélatraînéestatistiquepositivequialaissé2017(+13%)etlafortecroissancedel'activitééconomiqueaupremiertrimestre(+36%englissementannuel)nousprévoyonsunebaisseduPIBen2018en"Ecolatinaprévientquelorsquelatrêvedutauxdechangeseraconsolidéelestauxd'intérêttomberontàdesniveauxplusprochesdeladynamiquedeproduction"maisilfautdutempspouravoirconfianceetlesattentesserétablissent"Enoutrelahaussedestarifsdesservicesd'utilitéaffecteralerevenuréeldesfamillesausecondsemestre:l'exécutifessaierademodérerlesaugmentationsmaiscelles-ciserontaugmentéesparlaforteaugmentationdescoûtsParconséquentleconsultants'expects"greenshoots"ofactivityatthebeginningofthenextyear"

The work plans a recovery of activity in 2019, driven by the real recovery of social benefits (due to the slowdown in inflation), a better agricultural harvest (if drought does not occur). is not repeated) and the recovery of the sectors the improvement of the real exchange rate.

"However, next year's growth is not guaranteed.The Argentine economy depends on a favorable climate in the countryside, from an international context (commercial and financial) favorable, and the electoral strength of the ruling party to limit the formation of private external badets typical of the election years ", are the conditions, which is more difficult than the other, which places Ecolatina for that there is a rebound.