The recovery of Argentina’s industry, among the fastest in the world to date in 2021 – Telam

The resumption of industrial activity in our country so far in 2021 is one of the most important verified globally, in one ranking behind China, according to a comparison made by the Production Studies Center (CEP XXI) which also includes Brazil, Spain, France, Italy, India, Mexico, Germany, Japan, Chile and the United States.

The main reasons for this performance are “The change in industrial policy, the fall in interest rates which has generated a more favorable cost equation, the semiconductor crisis in the global auto industry and the exchange rate differential which has boosted demand for durable goods “CEP XXI director Daniel Schteingart told Tlam.

In July 2021, the plant’s production was 5.6% higher than in the same month of 2019 and 3.8% compared to the same period in 2018, according to statistics from INDEC.

On the other hand, CEP XXI – a study center that operates in the orbit of the Ministry of Productive Development – specifies that in Brazil manufacturing output fell by 1.5% between July 2019 and the same month in 2021, in Spain, -5.4%; in France, -10.4%; in Italy, -4.5%; in India, -2.1%; in Mexico, -3.0%; in Germany, -9.0%; and in Japan, -6.2%.

Likewise, although Chile and the United States posted growth of 2.8% and 0.9%, respectively, both figures were lower than the Argentine mark.

Among the countries analyzed by CEP XXI, only China ranks above the level of industrial activity over the same period, with an increase of 11.5% in July.

Disaggregating by sectors, the study center pointed out that “out of 11 branches, overall Argentina’s performance was better than the average of the countries mentioned between July 2019 and 2021”.

“The difference in performance in areas such as chemicals (31.4% against 1.2% in the average number of countries) and automotive (17.0% against 12.5%) is striking”, indicates the CEP XXI report.

The 11 sectors that are part of the comparison These are: food, drink and tobacco; Textiles, clothing and leather; Wood, paper and printing; Fuels; Chemical products; pharmacists; Non-metallic plastics, rubber and minerals; Base metals and metal products; Machinery and equipment; Automotive; and Other transport equipment.

In this way, the results of July showed a continuity of the trend recorded in the previous months, since in the cumulative of the first half of the year, the Argentine industry increased by 4.6% compared to 2019, above the countries mentioned except China.

Besides, “In 9 of the 11 sectors, the performance was better than the average of the countries mentioned”, CEP XXI indicated this in its Panorama Productif report.

While investigating the causes of these results, Schteingart noticed “a very strong change in industrial policy” since “the previous government never thought of industry as a strategic sector”.

“Between 2016 and 2019, Argentina was one of the countries in the world with the largest decline in industrial product per capita, with a loss of industrial jobs in 46 of the 48 months of the administration of the previous government “, aggregate sociologo.

For the head of CEP XXI, “the change in industrial policy translates into more productive credit, more development of suppliers. The other macro reason is that the sharp drop in interest rates improves the industry’s financial position and the cost equation. are two differentiating reasons for Argentina compared to the rest of the countries. “

Likewise, the semiconductor crisis that hit the global auto industry has had a strong impact on countries where the sector accounts for a large part of total manufacturing output, lowering the figure for this productive sector as a whole, as in the cases of Germany and Japan.

“The semiconductor shortage in Argentina is less striking than in countries like Germany because cars there on average have more tech accessories than those here,” Schteingart explained.

Another reason for the comparative improvement was the effects of the blackout that occurred in June 2019, which covered almost all of Argentina, on a Sunday when Father’s Day was celebrated, in due to the fact that it generated problems for several months in certain sectors. industrial companies, which also set a lower comparative record.

In addition, “last year the currency differential in Argentina made some durable goods very cheap at the MEP dollar exchange rate, which encouraged a strong demand for building materials and some automobiles,” he said. added the person in charge of CEP XXI.

And Schteingart concludes: “all this explains to you why Argentina’s industrial recovery is much more accelerated than in the rest of the countries compared, with the exception of China.

Industrial activity has been growing steadily since the end of 2020 and in the first eight months of this year it was 4.8% above the same period of 2019 and 21.1% above 2020 , according to the CEP XXI indicator. .