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London "I've tried it up to three times, I thought that persevering was the right thing, even if everything was against it.Now it has become clear to me that the best interest of the country is that one new prime minister is leading this effort. "
British Prime Minister Theresa May spoke in a voice strangled by emotion. There were tears at the door of 10 Downing Street, the official residence, where the second woman leader of the country's history announced her resignation.
The widespread rejection among conservatives of the latest attempt to save his Brexit plan, which included a nod to the Labor Party with the possibility of a second referendum, finally made it clear to him that she had been left alone.
May will implement its abandonment of the Conservative leadership on June 7. This will allow him to receive the President of the United States, Donald Trump, whose official visit to the United Kingdom is scheduled from 3 to 5 of this month.
The candidates most likely to succeed him, starting with Boris Johnson, look aside ultra-nationalist Nigel Farage and compete for tenacity in front of Brussels. The threat of the UK leaving the EU without an agreement on October 31 is back, which badysts say would have "significant negative effects".
"May's resignation increases the risk of a Brexit without agreement, which would have significant negative effects on the UK's sovereign rating," said Sarah Carlson of Moody's.
Analyst Ranko Berich points out that all attention will then be focused on the battle for the May succession. It is therefore probably obligatory for those who aspire to replace it to demonstrate their willingness to carry out an exit without agreement.
The conservative Boris Johnson, former mayor of London and fervent supporter of a tough Brexit, is the big favorite to succeed May and take the reins of the EU exit process.
Polls among Conservative members give him a clear advantage over the long list of candidates for the leadership of the formation and occupation of the main office at 10 Downing Street, but may encounter some resistance from deputies "Tory"
His peculiarity and ease of provoking controversy is raising doubts among some of his caucus colleagues, who will be tasked from June 10 to select the two candidates who will eventually be voted on by affiliates.
A poll of opinion gives him the first place with a 39% support, while the former Minister of Brexit, Dominic Raab, has about 13%.
Among the favorites, only Johnson confirmed his aspirations, even before the announcement of May's resignation, since neither Raab nor other potential candidates, such as Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt; Interior Minister Sajid Javid and Environment Minister Michael Gove have revealed his intentions.
How is the succession timeline
The suspension of the House of Commons is essential in the development of the timetable to find a replacement for UK Prime Minister Theresa May, and the Conservative Party has already expressed its desire to speed up deadlines so that everything can be closed Before the end of the month. July 24, the date of the beginning of the holiday of the deputies.
May confirmed yesterday that June 7 would cease to be the leader of the Conservative Party and expressed the wish that his companions begin the following week, starting June 10, in the procedure to find a successor.
The 1922 Committee is responsible for overseeing this process, which the "Conservatives" hope to complete by July 20.
The rules of procedure provide that, to be officially proclaimed, a candidate must be approved by at least two deputies.
If only one of them pbades, he will automatically be declared leader, but if the short list is wide, it seems that legislators proceed with a battery of votes until there are only two candidates left.
These two survivors will then be subject to the control of all party members, not just members.
The proclamation
The winner will be proclaimed leader of the Conservative Party, but will not become prime minister – and will replace Theresa May on Downing Street – until he gets a majority in the House of Commons.
In this way, there may be a cohabitation that nobody wants at this stage, with a new "conservative" leader, but with the same prime minister.
If the days pbad and you arrive at the beginning of the summer break, there can be no progress before the return of the deputies, which is scheduled for September (between 5 and 12).
September should also be the future Conservative Party Congress, which will begin this year on September 29th. The idea of the training is that there is already a leader able to turn the most pressing challenges of the UK, with Brexit at the top of the political agenda.
Farage benefits
The Brexit match
The main challenge for Conservative leadership candidates is to neutralize the emergence of the Brexit Party, led by Nigel Farage, who in the European Parliament elections drew voters with his radical and anti-European rhetoric. "Politically, May has not been able to interpret the mood of the country and his party," he said.
The original text of this article was published on 25/05/2019 in our print edition.
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