The risk of another major crisis threatens Cuba and puts the regime on alert

Struck by the debacle of Venezuela, the country is approaching the special period. Raúl Castro called on Cubans to "prepare for the worst"

CARACAS.- At the time of the most virulent of the special period, after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the
Granma measured the Cuban economic crisis without reporting it. The official bulletin of the Communist Party of

Cuba

(PCC), with only four pages, not only moved government decisions, it also replaced the toilet paper, disappeared due to shortages.

The economic measures of Castroism and the saving emergence of Hugo Chávez then resolved the depression, but they placed the special period forever (with a loss of 30% of GDP) as a nightmare set in the # 39, collective imagination of the island. Now, again, the threat of a new special period is knocking on the doors of the Cubans and is doing it again.
Granma as a symbol: it went from 16 pages to 8, because of the lack of paper. A news that has triggered alarms already lit after the shortage of bread, eggs, chicken, oil and medicine in recent weeks. Even the Cuban 14 independent portal and Medio warned against informative censorship orders to prevent the two words evoking this debacle from being repeated more than they should.

"The situation could worsen in the coming months, it is not a question of going back to the acute phase of the special period of the 90s. It is today's day. 39 another scenario in terms of diversification of the economy, but we must prepare for the worst variant, "warned this week

Raul Castro

Secretary General of the CCP, who ignored the warnings of his propaganda apparatus in front of such dreadful words.

To fight the planned crisis, the Cuban leader in the shadow chose to ask the people to save energy, avoid fuel thefts and increase food production.

Little Castro blamed "the financial and economic encirclement" promoted by Washington, which sprayed the thaw initiated by Barack Obama. "We will never give up the obligation to act in solidarity with Venezuela," added the former Cuban president, citing the key country of his economic future.

The United States has sanctioned vessels and companies badociated with the state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa), which carries the 40,000 barrels per day (100,000) sent from Venezuela to the island, at the request of Juan Guaidó, President. commissioned by Parliament and protagonist of the challenge against the binomial Maduro-Castro.

The Trump Trump Administration Department stepped up its pressure yesterday by punishing four Italian and Liberian companies and nine cargo ships (Greece, Italy, Panama and Malta) for operating with PDVSA and bringing crude oil to Cuba.

Although Cubans are specialists in the elimination of these sanctions, Havana knows that their support is fundamental for Caracas, particularly in terms of information and repressive tactics. The more revolutionary the umbilical cord is, the stronger the US pressure, which adds to the chronic problems of its economic system.

General Leopoldo Cintra Frias, Minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces, also recommended to his compatriots to eat hutia (a rodent similar to the squirrel), crocodile and ostrich, to fight the shortage of meat. "Jutía has more protein than any other meat, including beef, and it has high quality skin, and we do not grow it," said Raúl's right hand.

"This news confirms the tensions in public finances and the Cuban international balance of payments, as well as the intensification of austerity measures in response of economic policy to this situation," summarizes
THE NATION Pavel Vidal, former official of the Central Bank of Cuba and professor of economics at the Javeriana University of Cali.

The economist adds that Cuba has been trying for three years to badimilate unsuccessfully the effect of the fall in trade with Venezuela, worth about 8% of Cuban GDP. "Imports of goods from Venezuela, adding up oil, dropped by about $ 4,500 million, Cuban exports of goods to Venezuela, including drugs, decreased by $ 2,100 million, while professional services exports, led by doctors, dropped by 1500 million euros, and there is no indication that it has hit the bottom, "says Vidal.

Tourism, one of the lifesavers of recent years, did not start in the spring, although "this, coupled with the number of private companies and foreign investment projects, helped to mitigate the shock. Venezuelan, "confirms Vidal.

"Without cash to buy oil, there will be a crisis if Venezuela stops sending 50,000 barrels a day," bets for dissident economist Martha Beatriz Roque.

The final impact of the crisis will also depend on how Cuba has diversified its economy, which is now better connected to the world (Spain, France, Russia and China) and to a constantly growing private sector. On the contrary, the duality of money, the economic model of an inefficient state-owned corporation that pays very low wages and the limits imposed on the private sector continue to weigh on its growth.

The effect of the fall of the Soviet Union

The special period was a serious economic crisis that hit Cuba in the 1990s, after the fall of the Soviet regime.

Collapse

• Special period, the euphemism with which the Cuban government called the severe economic crisis that hit the island after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the hardening of the country. US embargo in 1992. Between 1990 and 1993, the GDP dropped by 30% The exit of crisis was progressive, from 1994. In 2007, Cuba reached the same GDP that in 1990.

Oil

• The crisis originated in the suspension of oil deliveries, which were reduced in 1991 to 10% of what the Soviets had agreed with Cuba. The shortage hit the agriculture and small industry of the island without fuel for its machinery. The Castro government has put in place changes in the agricultural system to prevent famine.

change

• The Cuban government has made several changes to overcome the crisis, including a "decentralized socialist market model", with greater freedoms for private property, economic decentralization, the creation of cooperatives and the promotion of receptive tourism and remittances. . money from the outside.