The social plot chavista | Behind Maduro appears …

From Caracas

Convincing yourself of your own lie can be a fatal mistake. It would not be the first time for the Venezuelan right. They repeat, since the beginning of the attempt to form a parallel government, that Chavismo is nothing else than Nicolás Maduro, locked in the palace of Miraflores, surrounded by a military dome encircled by corruption. It would only work to push what does not exist, the dead tree.

In 2017, they baderted the same thing: they overestimated their strength, they underestimated Chavismo. This reading led to a violent aggression followed by a succession of political defeats that brought them to this scenario in which they claim that they will overthrow Maduro, still by force.

The reality of Chavismo is another. First of all, he did not demobilize. It was expressed not only in the march of 23 January – visited by the right and the major media – but also in the mobilizations that followed the next two days, like that of Vargas, a town near Caracas.

On this point, it is necessary to disarm two myths of the right. First, the support is due to a client network and, secondly, those who mobilize do so by obligation. According to Hinterlaces survey company figures, between 37 and 41% of people define themselves as Chavistas. His relations with the current political process are manifold, with complex combinations such as distancing / attrition due to deep economic difficulties and tight ranks at a table where it is evident that there is a coup d'etat directed United States. .

This Chavism also has another characteristic: its levels of organization and politicization. There is an organizational fabric in working-clbad neighborhoods and rural areas. They are the communal councils, the communes, the local supply and production committees, the communal markets, the peasant councils, the productive enterprises, the Bolivarian militias, among other experiences. Chavismo has an identity and territorial dimension. The right does not have an organized presence, so it uses armed and paid groups to create homes that get popular support.

To this network is added the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, main political instrument of Chavez, the largest party of the country, which showed no break. The reflection of the unit in the face of aggression is powerful. The right seeks to break it, to generate defections, repentants who are then presented as heroes.

This political force is added to the lack of response of the call to the coup to the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fanb) and the different powers of the State. In 2017, the right had managed to convince the Attorney General to change his position completely vis-à-vis the government, but not this time: a judge of the Supreme Court had left office and asked to be received in the United States. United. It's little for a force action like the one on the table.

The situation of absolute weakness of chavismo presented by the right is then a construction which does not rest on what happens in the districts or the high spheres. Do they believe what they say?

This does not mean that there is no fragility resulting from attacks, personal mistakes, unstable internal balances. The prolonged economic situation is the most corrosive factor. This is why one of the strategies announced by the United States is to deepen the blockade of the economy to dry up an economy dependent on oil and imports. That is why it is also clear that the strength of the parallel governmental plan does not lie in the interior, but on the international scale.

The gap between the two variables is blank as seen from Venezuela. Saturday, it was obvious: while the day was peacefully spent in Caracas and in the country, the UN Security Council extraordinary meeting was a battleground between the US-led bloc and the countries opposed to the United States. the progress of the interference. This is where the main movements are playing today.

The right in Venezuela seems to be waiting to receive instructions from the outside depending on the evolution of the different actions taken. A partition of international positions has been highlighted, with clear support to Maduro as that of Russia, as well as the consolidation of the alliance that calls itself "international community": the United States, the France and Germany – the true leadership of the European Union -, Spain – which marks the agenda of Latin America for neo-colonial reasons -, Great Britain, Canada and Lima Group without Mexico.

It is too risky to predict the evolution of the variables, although the evolution so far seems to show that the US is advancing step by step as part of an established plan. The question that is circulating at this time is: what are the times that have been calculated to achieve the overthrow of Maduro? Do you anticipate a national acceleration once the international framework is established according to your needs? With which actors? Or do you think on the contrary enter a medium-term image? There is one element that so far has not come into action with the expected force: the Government of Colombia.

Politics does not work like chess, especially when the world is no longer the unipolarity of the 90s, while the United States did and defeated, the way it has mutated the war in Syria is a clear example. Venezuela is not a country where the calculations so far have yielded the expected results, and the Venezuelan right has been a terrible and costly investment: it is the fourth attempt to badault power in six years. One of the reasons to understand how they failed in this goal is the characterization of Chavism, its complexities, powers, architectures, counter-current responses capabilities.

Underestimating the adversary, in this case the enemy because of the way in which he raised the conflict, is a central mistake. The right has not stopped committing it. Is the United States too?