"The STEP can present an unexpected scenario by the market"

The economist and director of the consulting firm ACM, Javier Alvaredo, badyzed their impact on the primary, open, simultaneous and mandatory elections (STEP) that will be held next Sunday and that will constitute the first real indication of the most voted candidate , Mauricio Macri. , who is looking for his second term, Alberto Fernández, who shares the formula with former president Cristina Kirchner.

The specialist said that the economy was showing positive signs of the deterioration he had seen in April, but stressed that "fragility" remained because "Argentina is a small market, so it is always exposed to foreign funds ".

"The flexibility of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), allowing the Central Bank to intervene (on the foreign exchange market), and the hope of lower rates, have regained a taste of risk that has not existed since the end of last year, "he said. an interview in Diario Financiero.

"But everything is subject to uncertainties about the election issue.The polls indicate that the government is reducing the difference it had with the opposition, but that the opposition is leading the voting intentions it So there is a bit of a binary scenario, "he said.

"The market provides a probability of re-election of the government, which is a little higher than what I see internally," he said. "There is a lot of uncertainty that STEP can present a scenario that is not what the market is waiting for," he said.

"This is not clear in the face of the primary, but the market has chosen Macri as the best option, and from there it will be necessary to see what outcome there is in terms of market expectations," he said. he insisted.

In addition, Alvaredo evaluated Macri's economic policy and the agreement it signed with the IMF.

"This agreement is too restrictive and the next government will have to change this aspect of the agreement," he said.

Regarding the strategy of reducing inflation, he stressed that "it is incomplete".

"But we do not know that during an election period, it is very difficult to reach agreements with all sectors to try to adapt the variables to a set of expectations," he said. declared.

"It is an error on the part of this government not to want to enter into a national agreement in early 2016 or in the middle of 2017. And now, during an election period, they will be going to the polls and it depends on who wins, you'll see how he does it, "he said.

"Management was absolutely dependent on the need to make a very strong adjustment. In terms of management, the government was quite disappointing, "valued and compared the current situation in Argentina to the brutal crisis of 2001.

"In 2001, it seemed that the night was very dark and that the economy at six months was bouncing, and we were not expecting it," he said. Do not expect it to be a 12-month crisis without an answer, "he concluded.

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