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In the street, we talk about Delta in two ways: on the one hand, this variant of the Covid flies over the fateful warnings of fever and snot that abound in the school chat on duty, which begin with “hello everyone I wanted to let you know that“, Or my son”was in contact with”. On the other hand, Delta is named after the negative: that it will not come, since 15 weeks ago the cases fell. We’re in confused limbo but the panorama becomes clearer if we look at the curves on the outside.
The question is whether these days of great optimism due to declining cases, both in Argentina and in neighboring countries of Chile, Uruguay and Brazil, forman is part of a logical parenthesis between the waves, or if from a distance the – so far elusive – light of the end of the pandemic begins to shine.
The “logical parenthesis”, that is to say “the summer” that we are going through with a sustained decrease in infections, alludes to what a group of Italian and French experts in an article published by Nature last March (“Multi-wave pandemic dynamics explained: how to tame the next wave of infectious diseases“) Called”walking period”. Literally, the “walking period”, that is to say the interlude amid the waves of the pandemic.
Swab a baby for coronavirus testing. / Xinhua
Is it possible to estimate how long this time will last until the infections increase again? Couldn’t they go higher? All the questions are valid, beyond the justified hope that the two-dose vaccination will prevent a new accumulation of moderate and severe patients, with the known proportion of associated hospitalizations.
Whimsical calendar
Deduct behavioral models The Covid did not come as a simple task, let alone a successful one. The experts of the aforementioned document underline the weight that the reduction of infections has in this “intermediate time”, to determine the “when” of the wave which follows.
We say it and it seems obvious: the less there are cases today, the more we will delay the third (strictly it will be the fourth) wave.
However, the epidemiological phenomenon is complex. The virus crosses the population and imposes its time. With our actions, we are putting the epidemic on the right track; we do not necessarily master it.
A very clear example of the “viral will” was given by the Spaniards Enrique Bassat, epidemiologist and researcher at the Institute of Global Health (IGLobal) in Barcelona: “In India, which is the country where Delta has emerged, the first cases with this variant appeared in October. However, it did not proliferate until at least four months later ”.
To be exact, the site’s genomic monitoring data CoVariants.org point out that it is only in March of this year, that is, Five months later After being identified, Delta was seen “taking over” the spectrum of infections in India.
Also in Spain and the United Kingdom, five months passed between the high peak of January and the end of July, when Delta “lined up” and generated another rise from which at least England is still suffering.
Germany, Italy and France can also attest that having a term or semester “Grace” between the top of a wave and the next ascent, is in the expected parameters. At least that’s what they recently experienced with the Indian variant.
argentinian spring
“I would be pessimistic and would say that Delta will develop in Argentina. I don’t see any compelling reason why he shouldn’t become dominant. After what has been seen in India, where it took a long time to generate a mega wave, one can perhaps think that the time it takes for a new variant like this to enter and start to predominate it’s not less than four monthsBassat analyzed.
Vaccination against Covid in a center in Godoy Cruz, Mendoza. Photo: Orlando Pelichotti
But nothing is sung in Latin America, he opines, from Concepción del Uruguay, Entre Ríos, Soledad Retamar, computer specialist, teacher and researcher at one of the regional headquarters of the National University of Technology, which closely follows the pace of the pandemic.
“Indeed, it seems early to say that Delta is not going to generate another wave here, but for now, regionally, in South America we have no impact as one might expect», He evaluated.
Indeed, the expert doubts the “success” (seen from the eyes of the Covid) that this variant may have in the region: “Variants like Alpha (“old” United Kingdom) did not have the same impact here as in Europe. Here they pasted the local variants, such as Gamma (“Ex Manaus”) and Lambda (Andean) “.
” Is the climate problem? It’s hard to say. The truth is that Delta is going to find us with a high percentage of people vaccinated with one dose and with a complete and advanced pattern in a segment of the population. I still do not see a very clear projection of what can happen, ”he said.
Barriers
The one who was optimistic was biochemistry Belén Bouzas, Head of the Clinical Analysis Division of the Muñiz Hospital. The expert considered that the strict controls on the arrival of travelers from abroad were crowned with success, especially since the compulsory isolation and the carrying out of the swab on the seventh day are verified, “this who in the 37% of positive cases are of the Delta variant”.
“It’s not that he didn’t enter the country: Delta, obviously, is able to contain itself with the controls,” he said.
A nurse prepares a dose of the coronavirus vaccine. / EFE
Argentina experienced its maximum peak in Covid infections in the days of the week in May. If the pandemic were to follow the course of the aforementioned European countries (and we are avoiding the United States because of its high percentage of the population reluctant to vaccinate), Delta would have to start bypassing Gamma and Lambda (the dominant variants here). ending in september.
For now, Bassat warned, we must keep taking care of yourself all that is possible. It is, chin strap, distance and ventilation of environments: “Being much more contagious, Delta could generate an increase in cases. We have already seen that he has no problem infecting (not necessarily “doing”) anyone. Whether or not she is vaccinated. Whether the infection has passed or not ”.
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