The terror of Cristina – LA NACION

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Below are his main concepts:

• It is hard to find a moment in the history of Argentina, at least from the consolidated democracy in 83,, of
  

  so much electoral uncertainty
  
  as the current political moment. This situation is aggravated by the emergence in recent days of data from very credible investigations that are beginning to advance certain dogmas in which public life is regulated.

• However, of all the surveys, there was a very important one because of the effects it produced last week. A study conducted by Isonomía, a very precise consulting company that had a very strong impact, especially in the financial market. Basically, the novelty brought is the possibility of a run-off scenario where
  

  Cristina Kirchner
  
  you beat
  

  Mauricio Macri
  
  9 points.

• The result of the investigation has caused a state of panic, mainly among bondholders who badume that if Cristina returns to power, the chances of default – that she can not or will not pay the debt – are very real and must be discarded. of these Argentine badets. This is the reason why the country risk has seen a noticeable rise last week.
• The first obvious rarity of the sample is that it verifies that many voters who voted for Macri 15 days ago went directly to elect Cristina. Can you change so fast? Or maybe what this shows is a moment of anger. And if it was a punitive vote: can it be maintained in time or is it just the result of momentary discomfort?
• In the same survey, it appears that 60% of respondents say they do not know who they will vote in the October elections. A level of extraordinary uncertainty in the audience, which is common sense because the candidates are still unknown. At the present time, it is presumed that Macri will most likely be a candidate, beyond some issues within Cambiemos itself. Cristina, which would be the other term of this polarization, still does not know or does not answer, even if everything would indicate that it will be presented.
• Another interesting fact of this investigation, which involves a message, in principle for non-Kirchner Peronism, is that there would be no third position. Or is Macri, or the candidate to punish him, Cristina Kirchner. This is extremely important because it reinforces the idea of ​​a polarization dynamic similar to that prevailing in other companies without going further in Brazil.
• It also sends a message in favor of radicalism, because although it is true that a sector of the party plans to apply for a candidacy Roberto Lavagna, it seems so far that it is more of a phenomenon of the political offer.
• This gives the impression that today Cristina is not a problem of Peronism, but that it is beginning to be the most acceptable solution for this political movement, since it is the one that captures the most votes and those who who intend to contest it do not succeed in overcoming it or in reaching half of the votes. votes.
• Relations between radicalism and Lavagna are also problematic. In meetings with Martin Lousteau, the former Minister of the Economy was open to a trainee in Cambiemos that would allow radicalism to eliminate internal tensions, but against Maria Eugenia Vidal and not against Macri. This is also a problem for the radicals and, in turn, directly benefits the president. Because those who want to replace it do not find the ideal solution to do it in the anti-Kirchner space.
• In addition, the investigation throws two other relevant phenomena: the badumption on which the government relies, the dogma that said Cristina was "invitable", is now very debatable. What they find in the polls is that inflation is beginning to disrupt the perception of certain phenomena.
• On the one hand, the past of the exmandataria decreases in a person very worried about the current situation. On the other hand, what were the virtues of the government in the polls, from the institutional style to the security policy, begin to be relativized with respect to the great vice of the ruling party: not being able to control inflation.
• Among the announcements made last Wednesday about more convincing measures within the government, there are those concerning the foreign exchange market. Set a fixed ceiling for the swap band that can not exceed 51 before the end of the year.
• The polarization with Cristina affects the foreign exchange market and those who are most frightened by the possibility that the exmandataria come back are the first to go out and buy dollars. Therefore, the more elector is macrista and the more he is afraid of Cristina, the more he does damage to Macri by buying money.
• However, all this badysis has neglected something that must never be forgotten and that are the structural difficulties that faces Cristina Kirchner, whom she knows very well. The former president has a great intellectual advantage for a politician, it is to know how those who do not like him see it. She knows that this irritates a very important part of Argentina and therefore disappears. But should he appear both and when will he, will he remain competitive?
• Whatever the case may be, this does not mean that the Argentinian society and, above all, certain sectors of power do not take into account the possibility of a return of Cristina. The first place where this is obvious is in justice. Yesterday again, the newspaper
  THE NATION Title on cover: "
  Justice slows the causes of corruption in the face of electoral uncertainty. "
• This would corroborate the presumption that many judges, particularly those in the federal jurisdiction, who must try public servants, examine the swing of power more than the record.
• This relationship between power and justice manifests itself in many ways, but it would seem to corroborate the fact that there is a tradition in Argentina where justice does not judge the one who holds power and can also be observed with the government. .
• Why is all this important? If there is something that the government can strengthen in the election campaign, it is precisely in the institutional and judicial transparency.
• But Argentina is the most backward country to sanction everything related to the cause
  

  Odebrecht
  
  . In Peru, he has just committed suicide
  

  Alan García
  
  Fujimori and his family, who run the Congress, were also interviewed. They are judges who go against the power. On the contrary, here it seems that if anyone has the power or is about to have it, he enjoys a certain degree of impunity.

• To remember
  

  Yabrán
  
  who said, "Power, it's impunity"

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