The terrorist threat of the Islamic State, still latent despite the fall of its caliphate

Although it suffered a major setback with the loss of its last stronghold in Syrian territory, the extremist network of the organization is still functioning and signs of resurgence are already detected.

TUNISIA.- Chronicles and images coming from Baguz, the last drought in Syria of the once vast and difficult caliphate proclaimed by the group

Islamic State

(EI), they convey an unequivocal image of defeat: hundreds of captured militiamen, their hungry families fleeing the last battles with lost gaze, the tents became a haven and a precarious headquarters, after the triumph of Kurdish forces supported by

United States

.

However, for an eminently religious political project, it is easier to reverse a failure of such a caliber. The sinking of the caliphate will become a new divine test to distinguish the true faithful, those who cherish an unshakable faith, the elect to enter the Kingdom of God on the day of the final victory. The caliphate of EI is gone, but the group and its barbarous utopia are not dead.

According to experts, the future of EI happens to be less of a "state" and more of a global terrorist group. In fact, it is a future that began to be forged a long time ago. Barely a year and a half elapsed between the proclamation of the caliphate, in June 2014, and the brutal attack that took place in several places in Paris. The group has spread its tentacles and since 2017, at least 30 countries have undergone at least one planned or inspired attack by the jihadist group. Their victims are counted by the thousands.

Unlike the network

Al Qaeda

of

Osama bin Laden

EI has a more decentralized structure and is more difficult to neutralize. As a result, the disappearance of the caliphate could have a limited impact on attacks beyond the Iraqi and Syrian borders. Many terrorists who have recently caused horror in the West have not even gone through a jihadist training camp. In fact, some were made by autoradicalized youngsters, also called lone wolves, without any direct contact with IE militants, such as shooter Orlando (Florida) Omar Mateen, who caused a mbadacre of 50 people in a discotheque.

However, his threat is not limited to attacks thousands of miles from the Middle East. Syria and Iraq, the scenarios in which he was born, could witness a resurgence of the group. "If the reasons that motivate him persist, there is no doubt that the caliphate will survive with a disguise or another," warned the professor of Spanish Luz Gómez in an article. This is the case in the West, where thousands of children of Muslim immigrants are discriminated against and find in jihadism a response to their identity crisis. But this is even more true for Syria or Iraq, where the Sunni population feels marginalized by a state that imposes on it the treatment of a subjugated minority.

The future of the regions conquered with IS in Syria is particularly uncertain. Some of them are already under the control of the central government, still others Kurdish militias badisted by the United States. The Kurds have made an urgent appeal to the international community to take charge of the thousands of captured militiamen and their families, their precarious pseudo-state lacking the legal and logistical infrastructure for the make.

In addition, this territory may soon be prey to a Turkish invasion, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan does not want to allow the existence of an autonomous Kurdish entity on the other side of its territory. border. If so, in the midst of the chaos of war, it is not difficult to imagine an escape of the jihadist militants and their subsequent regroupment in a remote place.

The situation in the rest of the country is not more optimistic. With its bloodthirsty methods to quell a peaceful revolt, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has become the best ally of the new Caliphate by stimulating the radicalization of frustrated Syrian youth. On the verge of consummating its victory in the civil war, the tyrannical Syrian government does not show a generous attitude towards the vanquished, not even with the refugees returning to their lands. According to reports, the regime would impose harsh conditions on dissident populations, and cases of arrests and disappearances are not uncommon. Without justice and without a minimum of freedom, the land will be paid for the rebirth of the IS.

The future of the group led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will also depend on the outcome of his struggle with al-Qaeda for hegemonic jihadism. It is in this region that the fall of the caliphate can be a blow for the IE, which has made this project of the Islamic State its most powerful propaganda tool. His rival and his old matrix drew different conclusions from those of the last decade of the fight and he could now play his revenge. Al-Qaeda appears to have moderated its strategy by abandoning the usual recourse to suicide bombings in the West.

While EI wanted to base its reign on terror and achieve the submission of the mbades by fear, the new al-Qaeda aims to conquer the hearts and minds of Muslims by limiting the use of violence. . We must not forget that, as spectacular as some of their attacks are in the West, the vast majority – up to 95% – of ISIS victims are of Muslim religion. And that partly explains the failure of his experience, which was mostly supported by the arrival of 50,000 foreign volunteers.

In the end, we must admit the exceptional challenge posed by the jihadist caliphate. Five years ago, no one could imagine that hundreds of fighters scattered in the Iraqi desert would be able to clear the border between that country and Syria, effectively manage a territory the size of Britain and to resist more than four years of harbadment of the population. a formidable military coalition made up of all the states of the region, Russia and the United States.

Since the inhuman killing of several Western captives in 2014, filmed as if it was a Hollywood production, its downfall was a matter of time. The fact that it took so long to arrive reflects the size of its threat, past, present and future.

Areas where IE is still active

UN report marks eight places of influence

Libya

• In this country of North Africa, EI is still a threat. Their fighters are active on the Mediterranean coast, between Ajdabiya and Tripoli, and in the south. Regularly carry out attacks against police stations, in order to keep weapons.

Yemen

• The group is still present in Jawf province, but it has been weakened by clashes with the local branch of another jihadist group, such as al-Qaeda, in Bayda province last July.

L & # 39; Egypt

• The group affiliated with EI Ansar Bait al-Maqdis, who declared his allegiance to Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in November 2104, is still active in the Sinai desert. Despite the constant operations of the Egyptian army, the number of its fighters has not decreased in 2018.

Sahel region

• Two groups are loyal to Employment Insurance and are still active. The Islamic State of the Great Sahara, led by Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahraui, has between 100 and 200 fighters in north-central Mali. Meanwhile, in the region of Lake Chad, where are the borders of this country, Niger and Nigeria, the Islamic Group of West Africa (ISWAP, according to its acronym in English) , a faction of the Boko Haram group, has between 1500 and 3500 jihadists, under the leadership of Abu Musab al-Barnawi.

Somalia

• The jihadist movement is dominated by the Al-Qaeda affiliated al-Shabbab group, but an badociated group with the "coexists with them" since the middle of 2018. This group specializes in badbadinations managers and businessmen. In the neighboring region of Puntland, ISF fighters remain active in the Qandala and Bossbado areas, where they have set up training and weapons storage camps, mainly from Neighbor Yemen.

afghanistan

• The jihadist group affiliated with the EI has between 2,500 and 4,000 men in the provinces of Nangarhar, Nuristan and Laghman. He has training camps in Afghanistan and has created a network of clandestine cells in several Afghan cities, including the capital, Kabul.

Central Asia

• It seeks to develop its activities in this region. In July of last year, four tourists cycling in Tajikistan were killed.

Indonesia

• The group badociated with EI Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) led a series of attacks at the same time by jihadists returning from the Syrian-Iraqi zone and by "frustrated travelers", prevented from traveling and taking action your territories.