The three rebellions that can thwart Macri's reelection plans

The electoral mode was finally activated at Casa Rosada last week. The confirmation of this was the decision to erect Cristian Ritondo at the top of the list of deputies of the province of Buenos Aires. Key piece in the gear of the Government of Buenos Aires, the figure of Ritondo only covers the empty space Emilio Monzó, Speaker of the House of Representatives and chief administrator since the Congress of many initiatives that the government has managed to articulate with the opposition during the first three years of Mauricio Macri's term, will therefore remain a central change.

Everyday life and the vagaries of the economy do not prevent Macri from working in the armed campaign, earlier than other yearsIn this context, charged with surveys that measure the image and the intention to vote even when candidates are not defined, Balcarce 50 remains cautious. And there is a maxim that is proclaimed, out of personal conviction, but also as a show of force towards the outside world "The only candidate is Mauricio", they proclaim that in that third of the support to the president who would be supposed to be guaranteed, they add between five and ten percentage points at the time of the elections.

The best news for macrism at these times is that by 2019, you can start two months off the schedule and that the road until December 10 is shorter. In the middle of last year, in full flight of the dollar and at the beginning of the economic crisis that devoured half of the members of the government, the situation allowed only one day of work and later, the next day. Today, you think month by month. This is not small. Although the distance with this 2017 Macri forecast "think Argentina for 20 years" increased as much as inflation or the dollar price over the same period.

The formula from month to month allows at least to begin to project in the medium term, that it is possible to imagine the road until 2023 as maximum horizon. On this road that the government will borrow from Friday, when Mauricio Macri inaugurates ordinary sessions of Congress, the first challenge seems to be to avoid three rebellions that may thwart any attempt to keep Macri in power.

In the first place, Macri and his little table know that the noises of the last weeks within the alliance. The change must end. Radicalism, fundamental ally of every adventure across the provinces, requires a presence at the national level and even a sector has dared to propose to Martin Lousteau to participate in a presidential STEP against Macri himself.

In government, unlike 2015, when the society at the university was trying to gain power, they believe for some time that nothing should win Macri competing in a primary against a candidate of the same space. Lousteau, a politician who defines himself as unipersonal, is inclined to disrespect political agreements and lacks ways to thank, for example, the invitation to the Asian tour that Macri has just concluded and the ex-minister Cristina Kirchner's Economics took this opportunity to insist that, in the dialogue with the national media, it would be possible to integrate a PASO Cambiomista.

The second rebellion that the government should avoid is that of the disenchanted voter. Rosada still does not know how many 2015 voters can be reelected four years later. While support for the 2017 parliamentary elections increased, in the last 15 months, the lack of control of the economy – a summary of the dollar's rise of more than 100% and the inflation of 48 % in 2018 – prompted a lot of The support obtained during the last presidential election, especially in the ballot, appear in doubt for October.

In the government, they are convinced that this vote will not go to Kirchnerism, let alone if the presidential candidate is Cristina, but they believe that they can migrate to an alternative Peronism, which takes more and more more form each week and that definition of how you will participate in the elections. There is consensus on a common name to fight the presidency in Macri, which is taking shape today while the third position of the electorate could escalate into the rankings.

The third rebellion is perhaps the one that can do the most damage to the government. And that can be created from the Supreme Court of Justice, very split. Since the end of last year, the government's attempt to form friendly relations with the highest court of law is evaporating week after week. The departure of Ricardo Lorenzetti's presidency generated a bigger problem than that represented by Lorenzetti's presidency.

Four months after taking office, Carlos Rosenkrantz's leadership is weakened each time his predecessor and partners, Juan Carlos Maqueda and Horacio Rosatti, sign against his views, which coincide mainly with those of the government. The last unfavorable sentence is that which requires the State to pay $ 15,000 million to San Luis and opens the door to a debt five times higher than that of Santa Fe.

The three rebellions, some more advanced than others, find something in common. For one reason or another, the government could have disabled them before they appeared and left them alone. To ensure his reelection, Macri must try to solve them, knowing that he must be willing to negotiate sacrifices as long as they do not cause an irreparable cost.