The title of Donald Trump who shakes the dollar and mortifies Mauricio Macri – 05/06/2019

All last week, it was said that for the International Monetary Fund to finally accept that the Central Bank could intervene on the foreign exchange market without waiting for the dollar's price to reach the ceiling of the non-intervention zone, direct management played a vital role in leading the IMF, not less than that of the US Treasury Department, of the Donald Trump government.

The impact of this decision was immediately noticeable: the dollar has calmed down and, to a certain extent, the country risk. A week later, we could say that the scene is reversed because of friend Donald Trump. His announcement – Sunday afternoon, via Twitter – could impose a sharp increase in tariffs on Chinese imports he blew the markets in the air.

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All the world's stock markets are in red at this time and currencies depreciate against the US dollar. Emerging people too. The The Brazilian real already loses nearly 1% against the dollar. This film is known: if markets tremble, the negative effects multiply. That's what we see from the beginning of the wheel, with a 1.2% rise in the price of the big dollar.

We now know that the central bank his hands are untied d & # 39; intervene. But also the body that runs Guido Sandleris has said more than once that his interventions should appease "disruptive movements"or what is the same, gets up unjustified.

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Clearly, none of this is what we see this Monday. The reasons for the exchange rate tremor came from Trump's tweet. The plant does not intend to go against the current. At most, it will try to mitigate exchange rate fluctuations, but if the rest of the emerging currencies evolve, it will not make much effort to "consolidate" the exchange rate. On the financial side, if he intervenes to maintain the peso-dollar relationship to calm, it just reduces dollarization those who want to give pesos to make dollars.

One fact to keep in mind: the central bank decided not to inform, in the end, whether or not it has intervened on the foreign exchange market, whether in cash or in the future. Only the stock of reserves is reported. These dropped by 605 million US dollars last week, but everything would indicate that it was not for the plant's sales as an intervention.

That's the logic. But the additional problem of the Argentine government is that the dollar is an electoral thermometer. It is well known that the government needs a calm exchange rate in order to be able to hope for a drop in inflation, and then a better intention to vote for the party in power. Many planets must be aligned so that the government can go to the polls with confidence. But of course, there is one variable that can not be processed: the Twitter account of Donald Trump, who upset the world yesterday.