The trade balance registered its eighth consecutive surplus in April, rising to $ 1,131 million.

Official sources have pointed out that during the first four months, a surplus of $ 3,147 million, "the highest level for a first quarter since 2012".

They added that "the balance of the energy balance was a deficit of 103 million US dollars, but that it had a surplus of 72 million US dollars in the first four months, its highest level since the beginning of the year 2012 ".

In April, the exports reached US $ 5,035 million, an increase of 1.7% over one yearall in imports totaled US $ 4,174 million, down 31.6% in the same comparison.

Exports rose compared to April, mainly due to the 10.3% increase in quantities, as prices fell by 7.7%.

The Exports of primary products and fuels and energy increased by 18.8% in one year and 5.8% respectively, while those of the rest of the major items declined: manufactured goods of agricultural origin (MA), 5.6%; and manufactured goods of industrial origin (MOI), 2.3%.

Compared to March, April exports increased 3.3%, while, seasonally adjusted, they decreased 2.5%.

The imports in April decreased by 31.6% compared to the same month of the previous year (- $ 1,928 million) when prices fell by 3.5% and contracted amounts by 29.1%.

The imports of capital goods decreased by 42.3%; those of intermediate goods, 17.1%; those of fuels and lubricants, 7.3%; those of parts and accessories for capital goods, 28.2%; those of consumer goods, 35.2%; and those of pbadenger cars, 69.7%.

Compared to March, April's imports increased 5.6%, while seasonally adjusted imports decreased 1.4%.

The trade surplus is the result of an increase in exports, explained mainly by an increase in grain sales; base metals and their manufactures; and oil seeds and oleaginous fruits, as well as meat and edible offal; and a drop in imports, mainly, of vehicles and machinery, electrical apparatus and equipment and their parts.

How the international context and the exchange rate influence, according to private

The ABCEB consultant pointed out that Argentina was maintaining its trajectory in April and posted a positive balance for the eighth consecutive month.

He noted in his report that "imports continue to show decreases of the same order as those seen in March, with a drop from one year to the next of about 31. , 6% (with price declines of 12.7% and 29.1%), consistent with a recessionary context and with an exchange rate increasing by 4.1%. have not responded to the rise in the exchange rate and increased only 1.7% compared to April 2018, following a price reduction of 7.7% and an increase of amounts of 10.3% ".

While "the total volume of trade, or $ 9.479 million, recorded a year-over-year decline of 16.2%, due to the slowdown in global trade with the United States and China at the center of the dispute."

ABECEB noted that external sales of Argentinean products were most dynamic in the Asian markets (ASEAN, China and South Korea) and the Middle East (North Africa and Egypt); contrary to the results obtained in the MERCOSUR countries and the European Union, which have recorded strong setbacks. Meanwhile, on the import side, there have been significant declines in almost all origins.

The economic consultant, Ecolatina, also indicates that "the product of the foreign exchange crisis of last year, the government could show a significant improvement in the external front", which lies amidst commercial disputes, "the product of advances and threats from the United States on China "around the imposition of tariffs.

"The relative increase in external goods – the increase in the competitiveness of the exchange rate – and the deterioration of local demand, which hits imports and encourages exports (weaker domestic sales which compel the search for new markets), translates into a recovery in the trade surplus lost in 2017 and 2018, "explained Ecolatina.

In this context, his report predicts that "the trade balance will be around $ 10,000 million this year and will peak since 2012. This growth will be explained both by a recovery in exports, driven by a record harvest, as well as a deterioration of imports, the result of the recession and the depreciation of the peso ".

"In this way, foreign exchange needs will be largely covered by this way, providing commercial dollars in times of crisis," the report concluded.