The trade war between the United States and China has worsened, but the value of Argentine soy has increased

China's response to the announcement made last Thursday by the US government regarding the application of a new 10% customs duty on Chinese products imported, a maximum amount of $ 300,000 million since September 1, did not wait. It was not hot.

A sharp devaluation of the yuan, which improves the competitiveness of Chinese exports, caused the first earthquake of the opening of the economic week. And among the aftershocks, the strongest was caused by an announcement by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that Chinese companies "have suspended their purchases of US agricultural products."

The "crossfire", a little over a month after the truce signed in Osaka, Japan, by US presidents Donald Trump and China Xi Jinping, only accentuates the differences between the two parties and extend the duration of the trade war began in March 2018.

In this context, prices of soybeans, the most affected agricultural product in the US, have been cited today on the Chicago Stock Exchange with hollows close to $ 5. However, with the operation of the wheel and after three consecutive negative weeks for the ratings, the oilseeds managed to "recover", to finish the wheel almost unchanged.

Indeed, at the time of fixing the day's adjustments, the tables reflected a price of $ 312.41 per tonne for the August soybean contract, unchanged from Friday, and $ 314.53 for the September position. , with an "improvement" of 10 cents.

Lack of rainfall over the last seven days in major US agricultural areas and the possibility that the USDA has reduced the proportion of soybeans in good / excellent condition in its weekly crop ratio have reduced negative impact of the new China

However, after the closure of the Chicago operations, the USDA also subscribed to operators' expectations, since it maintained 54% of the percentage of good / excellent soybean 69%. effective for a year, but higher than the 53% expected by individuals.

In the 6 to 10 day forecast, the US weather service predicted lower than usual temperatures and above-normal precipitation over much of the central area for coarse grain production. These conditions – if fulfilled – could improve the situation of crops where the lack of moisture was beginning to show signs.

It is precisely these signs of stress on corn crops that allowed the September and December positions to close cereals with increases of $ 2.26 and $ 2.07 in Chicago, where adjustments were made . and $ 163.28. Contrary to what was reported for soybeans, the USDA echoed dry weather on crops and reduced the proportion of maize to good / excellent condition from 58% to 57%.

FOB and devaluation

Today, in the local market available, two factors have been combined to allow the nominal rise in soybean value: the devaluation of the peso against the dollar (the parity has risen from 44.45 to 45.29, according to the National Bank) and FOB Price of oilseeds in Argentine ports. These two factors allowed buyers to raise their proposals in pesos.

Although the soybean bid for deliveries to the Gran Rosario terminals was 10,600 pesos, the bulk of the buyers "extended" the proposal to 10,700 pesos per tonne ($ 500 above current value Friday) to try to save time. of merchandise.

But despite the improvement, the level of activity was unobtrusive on the physical place. "At the wheel, about 30,000 tons were sold," LA NACION told a source in the commercial sector, adding that, given the national uptrend, many sellers "define $ 11,000 per ton as new value" trigger "for their orders."

It should be noted that the improvement in the FOB value of soybeans in Argentine ports from $ 332 to $ 341 per tonne is a direct result of the worsening trade war between the United States and the United States. China, especially after the announcement of the Chinese government. suspension of purchases of US agricultural products. South America is returning to take a step forward in China's supply.

The improvement in soybean prices was also reflected in Matba Rofex, where the November and May positions totaled $ 2.50 and $ 0.80, while their adjustments were $ 244 and $ 240.80.