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The commercial war, it is true, went further than it was supposed. Rates, impacts on reciprocal quotations of currencies, US movements tending to the return of North American companies from China (or at least to other Asian countries) and a tense climate between them that generates revenue uncertainty and affects projects and business decisions; everything compromises the intensity of trade between the two, business investment flows of the two countries in the other, but also of total global trade (these are the two main players in world trade) and total gross world product (These are the two major powers in the global economy).
It must be said that the world has a far-reaching conflict in this controversy, but this controversy is not the only one. In addition to this conflict between the two largest economies in the world (the United States, which generates 25% of the global product, and China, 16%); the Brexit process is ongoing (the UK is the 5th largest economy with 3.2% of the total product); instability[ME1] politics in Italy (8th world economy, which creates 2.2% of the global product); the recent and growing controversies between Brazil (the world's 9th largest economy, which accounts for 2.1% of the global product) and Europe for environmental political reasons – and the alignment of President Bolsonaro with United States of President Trump.
Moreover, tensions have emerged between Russia (the twelfth world economy, which generates 1.8% of the global product) and several world powers for its positioning and its international incursions (and its internal political climate, with controversial opposition episodes). President Putin's policy); the difficulty of forming a government in Spain (the world's 14th largest economy, which generates 1.6% of the world's product); in addition to the presence of Saudi Arabia (18th eulogy of the planet, which creates 0.8% of the global product) in the political tension in the region, or controversies stemming from the operation of the political system in question led by President Erdogan in Turkey (20th world economy, which represents 0.8% of the product of the planet).
Thus, 9 of the world's top 20 economies, which account for 53% of the world's product, create conditions conducive to political uncertainty.
And France has been excluded from the previous list (of those 20 former members of this conflicting group), although she suffers from the pressure of nationalist outbreaks and her yellow vest on the streets and in Mexico, that she is not in the right. with his new government of President López Obrador He lives in a tense internal political climate, which also faces his already old climate of internal violence and occasional tensions with the United States that create an unstable climate in the region.
In the same way as what was not included in this list (the worst could have been included) to other countries that are not among the 20 largest but close to them (they are part of 30 largest economies in the world) and have local problems or its regional tensions, such as Taiwan (and its links with China), Iran (and its positioning in the Middle East conflict), Nigeria ( and her problems of internal violence) and Hong Kong (with her marches in the streets to protest Chinese influence).
As a result, the economic intensity policy index is about 300 points and since January 2017, it has entered a historic record area in 30 years.
However, globalization has not declined and international trade remains at robust levels ($ 25 billion of total world exports in 2018, historical nominal maximum). But this is happening on a new map: a world in which countries compete and do not cooperate, in which international institutions weaken and where power overrides international legality (because consensus is only achieved by those who respect each other and discussed the basis of each one's legitimacy).
It is a world in which national policy has less capacity, an international consensus has been lost and technology allows companies to progress on their own, avoiding uncertainties and controversies. So, despite everything, the economy continues. There is a conflict between the technological and transnational economy that is moving forward in the same way (as it can), and the politics of countries that create tension and destroy value.
It is in this world that Argentina must regain the levels of participation it has lost. But what do you need to resume. This is not the best time, but it does not justify staying out of it. You must choose partners, decide on strategies, choose playgrounds. And that's why special attributes are required.
* The author is an international trade specialist
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