The two foreign policy rules that Joe Biden will apply in Latin America and that Sergio Massa heard during his visit to Washington

Joseph Biden applies a government program that distances him from Barack Obama, preserves a certain diplomatic point of view on Donald Trump and tries to consolidate an agenda for Latin America that reorganizes the Great strategy the United States. Mexico appears as its main regional partner and Alberto Fernández as fixer for his contacts with Bolivia, Cuba, Peru and Venezuela, if he manages to straighten out his zigzag political geopolitical strategy and the internal crisis in Mercosur.

President of the United States also worried about China’s influence in Latin America and the political instability of the countries – Colombia, Chile and Peru – which are allies and are now undergoing unexpected convulsions for Washington.

First rule of foreign policy

Pulp he met Juan González (Biden’s special advisor for the region), Julie Chung (State Department), Gregory Meeks (Democratic representative), Bob Menendez (Democratic Senator) Yes Richard Martínez (Inter-American Development Bank), presentation at the Inter-American Dialogue (IAD) Yes to the Council of the Americas, and dined with Bill clinton at a legendary Connecticut restaurant.

All Massa contacts, senior officials of the White House and multilateral lending agencies, members of the Capitol, Think tanks and former President Clinton, They showed their concern for China and its geopolitical influence in the region.

The Speaker of the House of Representatives heard in Washington that This influence from Beijing is given by the structural difficulties of the region and the social and economic impact caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Massa learned in reserve that Joseph Biden has a program to stop Xi Jinping’s offensive and that it will not accept intermediate diplomatic positions presented as an equidistant and multilateral agenda.

Biden’s plan to contain China is linked to a Pentagon intelligence report on the own areas of influence that Beijing is trying to appropriate with its own sweet power, the decision to add Xi Jinping to the agenda on climate change and the Paris Agreement, and competition for soft finance throughout Latin America.

In this context, Massa learned that the United States Senate approved and referred to the House of Representatives a bill that allocates more than $ 170,000 million for research and development. Part of these funds will be used to capitalize the IDB and CAF, which will have the function of matching the financial funds that China uses to colonize Latin America.

“As other countries continue to invest in their own research and development, we cannot be left behind. The United States must maintain its position as the most innovative and productive nation in the worldBiden pointed out in obvious reference to China when he learned that the project had received a half-sanction in the upper house on Capitol Hill.

Biden’s pressure on Xi is a diplomatic continuation of Trump’s geopolitical agenda. Obama sought a diplomatic rapprochement with China – he wanted a friendly and cooperative bipolarity – but Biden rejected this bilateral strategy and is trying to consolidate his agonic position vis-à-vis Beijing.

The United States sees Africa as a continent at the mercy of China and its ability to build infrastructure and give a gift communications and surveillance technology. From this perspective, Biden does not want this pattern of territorial conquest to repeat in Latin America, and that is why he will deploy bilateral aid and accept that Huawei remains with control of 5G in the region.

Alberto Fernández has not yet ruled out that Huawei could participate in the country’s tenders, and the Chinese company has already signed a key contract authorized by ARSAT. Before the end of the year, when the law is enacted to compete with China, Biden will have an allocation of $ 1.5 billion to develop 5G technology.

A very clear signal for Balcarce 50 and its foreign policy which evolves in a permanent zigzag way.

Second rule

Alberto Fernández’s multilateral speech when speaking to European leaders – Emmanuel Macron, Ángela Merkel, Pedro Sánchez and Antonio Costa – is seen as an auspicious sign in the White House. And it’s also weighed as a gesture of approach the games of secret diplomacy that the Argentine president waged in Central America at the behest of Washington, Rome and Madrid.

But the traffic jams in the oval room ignite when Alberto Fernández supports Hamas at the UN and he refrains from condemning the Nicaraguan dictatorship within the Organization of American States. In this scenario, Biden and his advisers for the region assume the worst: it wouldn’t just be an ideological stance referring to the Cold War, but for them, it is also the lack of knowledge of the global agenda and the basic principles of modern diplomacy.

The Casa Rosada justified its abstention by condemning the Sandinista regime to avoid “a new empowerment” of Luis Almagro, Secretary General of the OAS. An argument based on a geopolitical fact from the past, which Massa knew and ended up ratifying during his trip to Washington.

Biden believes the Almagro cycle is starting to languish and it’s time to find a new OAS secretary to revamp the “Carrot and Stick” concept. The White House forwarded this concept to the Argentine Foreign Ministry and This is why his West Wing did not understand why Alberto Fernández chose to favor an abstention vote which placed him on the side of Belize and Honduras, two countries with an almost non-existent relationship with the country.

Massa landed in Buenos Aires with the conviction that he had already advanced to the head of state. Washington is concerned about political instability in Chile, Colombia and Peru. And you still don’t know how to establish a relationship reliable with Jair Bolsonaro, who pitted Brazil against the Paris Agreement on climate change.

Through his special advisor Juan González, Biden suggested that Alberto Fernández could act as fixer in Latin America. In the eyes of the United States, this means that Argentina -Despite the economic effects of COVID-19 and its intention to refinance all of the IMF and Paris Club debt-, It can help establish mechanisms for institutional stability in the region.

This opinion of the Democratic administration is based on the closeness that Alberto Fernández maintains with Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Mexico), Luis Arce (Bolivia) Yes Pedro Castillo (Peru), Yes the dictatorial regimes led by Nicolás Maduro (Venezuela), Daniel Ortega (Nicaragua) and Miguel Díaz-Canel (CUBA).

In addition, the State Department considers Mercosur to be part of the president’s alleged regional influence. It is an act of diplomatic voluntarism: the regional bloc is adrift, and there is not even a consensus to organize a summit of foreign ministers and ministers of the economy.

However, Biden, advised by González – who shared a long dinner with Massa – has already decided to place a bet on Alberto Fernández. They have not forgotten the vote for Nicaragua, nor their ambivalent position regarding the violation of human rights in Venezuela. But he needs a president who can move around the area council, and Massa reinforced that idea in every meeting he held during his 80 hours in DC.

The White House is ready to reflect its confidence in Alberto Fernández. The bureaucratic process to crown an official visit to Washington has already started, and if it couldn’t be due to COVID-19, there would be a virtual meeting with Biden.

Until now, Alberto Fernández only spoke with Biden before succeeding Donald Trump. A courtesy call. And nothing more.

The president hates Trump and applauded Biden’s arrival. Francisco praises the Democratic leader, and Alberto Fernández almost always considers the pope’s opinion as a revealed truth. The head of state also wants a deep bilateral relationship with Washington, but he is waiting for a diplomatic signal which sets out the terms of the White House’s strategy with the Rose House.

Alberto Fernández intends to place Argentina at the head of the Andean Development Corporation (CAF), a multilateral organization managed by Colombia with the support of the United States. Washington does not have a vote on the CAF board of directors, and he always travels behind the scenes to support a candidate or get a black ball.

Cristian Asinelli, undersecretary for international financial relations, is the Argentinian candidate for CAF. Asinelli is in competition with Sergio Díaz-Granados, Colombian by birth and with excellent contacts in Washington. Díaz-Granados has a chance to beat Asinelli, who today lacks the voices of Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay and Peru. In addition to the 13 private banks that make up the board of directors of the multilateral credit entity.

Massa heard in Washington, very close to the White House, that Biden would make a gesture in favor of Alberto Fernández. And that Asinelli will be sworn in at the head of CAF before the end of July. “Seeing is believing”, replied a member of the Government who lives in the shadow of the President.

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