The uncertainty of Venezuela's exit under the American cold

(From South Bend, Indiana)

In the oval room, with the traditional fireplace in the background, President Donald Trump offered his photos to his Colombian colleague Iván Duque and played the game that he likes most: become the mysterious. "We'll see," was Trump's laconic response when they consulted him on sending 5,000 troops to the Colombian-Venezuelan border. The first stone was launched by security advisor John Bolton at a press conference to explain the sanctions imposed on the Venezuelan national oil company PDVSA, holding in hand a notebook clearly stating "5,000 soldiers in Colombia ". An oversight or a message for Nicolás Maduro? We do not know what Bolton meant by the notation that everyone could see. Trump left another concern that morning: "Our military (Americans and Colombians) work together, let's see how it works"

Meanwhile, everyone at the White House is repeating the Trumpean motto on the Venezuelan crisis: "All options are on the table". Of course, now, with a more disturbing element such as the humanitarian aid requested by interim President Juan Guiadó to the international community and that Nicolás Maduro's regime refuses to let in a country where at least a third of the population suffers from malnutrition. The vice president of the chavist regime, Delcy Rodriguez, said the aid sent by the United States is "poisoned and can even cause cancer." Trump responded by saying that he considered "a terrible mistake" to prevent the entry of humanitarian aid.

"I'll probably have more flexibility than any man in this position"Trump added enigmatically to the question of whether he had a plan B in case Maduro would want to perpetuate power and brutally suppress the opposition." I always have a plan B and C and D and E and F … ".Guidó's recognition as the legitimate president of his country." He enjoys extraordinary support. In South America and around the world, "he said.

Possible military intervention or unleashing of uncontrolled violence in Venezuela is beginning to worry American academic and political circles. "Everything can happen. There is no option that should be discarded from the outset. But a military confrontation would be a disaster for Venezuela and the rest of Latin America and the United States.", is one of the conclusions of the group of experts that discussed the situation of Venezuela at the Kellogg Institute for International Studies. University of Notre Dame, in a snowy South Bend in Indiana.

In opening the debate, the visiting professor and moderator of the event, Claudio Orrego, former governor of the metropolitan region of Santiago de Chile, described the situation in Venezuela as "the deepest social, political and economic crisis that the region has known for decades ". "And he considered that"the Bolivarian government has lost the political initiative and can no longer mark the agenda of the debate"Then he gave the microphone to Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, professor of political science and world affairs." We are here to speculate on what will happen in Venezuela over the next few weeks, but in reality, nobody knows it. We are in one of those moments of crisis that can fire for any partyPerez-Liñán told a large audience of professors and doctoral students in the renovated Hesburgh Center.

Bernardo Pulido Márquez, a young doctor in Venezuelan law, pointed out that the opposition in his country had lost contact with the armed forces after the attempted coup against Chavez in 2002, but that Guaidó comes from a military family Facilitate discussions with officers who are willing to recognize their government, although they still fear retaliation and expect that middle managers will make it clear to them that they will withdraw . "This experience allowed him to talk to sectors that until now had no desire to approach an anti-retreat group."If this approach deepens, it is only then that we can talk about amnesty with the military and think about the withdrawal of the armed forces by Maduro, the transfer of power to Guaidó and retirement without fear of the terrible chavista purges ".

"Venezuelan police forces have become one of the deadliest forces in the world"said sociologist Veronica Zubillaga, visiting professor and thoroughly familiar with the marginal neighborhoods of Caracas." At the 2007 protests, there were 124 deaths, one per day, in four months. Almost all of these deaths occurred on the streets during clashes with police and "collectives", the para-police forces, "he explains. It's even worse. At events this early in the year, 40 people died in less than a month, an average of two people a day. And the difference is that the vast majority have died in their own neighborhoods, including at home. And that means that the uprising is now taking place in the Chavist strongholds of the poorest neighborhoods. "Professor Zubillaga said that, according to her contacts in the Caracas neighborhoods," the police are more and more aggressive and dedicated, especially stealing. They enter homes without any excuse and take whatever they can. They even look for food that we all know is difficult to find. "

Michael Coppedge, a political scientist and principal investigator of the Democracy Variety Index, who compares the democratic level of countries around the world from 1945 to the present day, said that Venezuela was one of the cases in which "the democratic decline went further"And he explained that" in the circles of power in Washington, there is no will, except in extreme cases, to overthrow a democratically elected government, but in the case of Venezuela, Maduro is considered an imposter, an usurper. power through electoral fraud and therefore illegitimate. In this context, support for Guaidó is considered totally legitimate. "And he felt that" for the moment, "the United States will merely drown out the regime with measures against sending oil dividends essential to Chavismo's survival." This has great financial and environmental consequences. can stifle Maduro. It's like walking on the oxygen hose to join an offshore diver. Very soon, it will have to come to the surface and when that happens, the opposition will be closer to the resumption of power. "

After two hours of debate, while it was snowing outside and the temperature had dropped to eight degrees below zero, the participants agreed, in a summary of the above, that it is impossible to achieve a democratic transition as long as Maduro remains in power. But at the same time, it would also be unlikely that the leaders of the Venezuelan United Socialist Party (PSUV) who "continues to represent 20% of the population" are not included in the discussions. They insist on "the unpredictability" of the outcome of this Venezuelan crisis. The same uncertainty that reigns in the White House.