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A mayor once said that if a house is important because it is the private house, a city should be given the same consideration because it is everyone’s “public house”.
Sonia G. (doctor, 35) decided that neither of these two houses would be in London for her anymore.
After five years in the English capital, he returned to live in Madrid (Spain), precisely the city where the mayor who made this reflection, Enrique Tierno Galvn, was alderman.
He is by no means the only one making this decision: the UK suffered the biggest drop in population last year since World War II. A decline driven by a massive exodus of migrants which has its epicenter in London.
About 1,300,000 foreigners left the country between the third quarter of 2019 and the same period of 2020, according to data from the Center of Excellence for Economic Statistics (ESCOE, for its acronym).
A leak that is expressed in gusts in the English capital: 700,000 people born abroad have left the city, according to estimates by economists Jonathan Portes and Michael O’Connor crossing official data on employment and population.
“It’s an unprecedented exodus,” they say.
The pandemic, the catalyst
The Spanish doctor puts the skin to the data and conclusions of the aforementioned investigation. “In my case, the pandemic is the last straw,” he told BBC Mundo. “It’s not because of the volume of work due to the coronavirus, it’s the same in my country, but because of the wear and tear of not being able to visit my family, especially my grandmother, I am afraid I will never see them again. I have not been able to see them for almost a year and the difficulties in entering and leaving the UK are increasing. I feel isolated and the pandemic will continue for several more months », Explains the doctor.
“The UK has performed relatively poorly in economic and health terms during the first wave of the pandemic,” say experts.
The pandemic as a catalyst. This is precisely the main assumption used by Portes and O’Connor to explain the flight of citizens born outside the UK.
“The UK behaved relatively badly in economic and health terms during the first wave of the pandemic,” they analyze.
“For many immigrants, especially Europeans and those who have recently arrived or have family in their country, the choice [de quedarse durante la pandemia] It would have meant staying here without a job, with less money or even nothing, and paying for a house with relatively high rent. ”
“So the choice was not difficult for them”, they think. And it is: “Going home with the family, with less expense and less likelihood of contracting the coronavirus.”
Alberto Domnguez fully identifies with the diagnosis of these experts.
This Spanish tattoo artist and model had been in London for almost six years and two weeks ago he packed his bags and returned to his homeland.
“I love London: its hobbies, its multiculturalism, its efficiency, the opportunities it had before,” he told BBC Mundo, “but it is extremely difficult to live in this city at the moment because of the pandemic , with such a high cost of living and no income. “It’s a shame you can’t get a tattoo online yet,” he jokes resignedly.
The price of housing in London is one of the reasons why European workers decide to walk due to the lack of income caused by the Covid-19 crisis.
Immigrants, more punished
Money, housing and work. These three pillars of immigration cited by ESCOE research quickly began to falter with the pandemic.
Prior to his arrival, the UK unemployment rate was at its lowest level since 1975 (3.8%), but is now at its highest level in the past four years.
More than 1.7 million people are unemployed and the unemployment rate could move between 7% and 10% by mid-year, according to projections by the Bank of England.
And these are numbers that do not reflect the true scale of the problem, according to ESCOE researchers, who believe that much of the economic punishment for the health crisis falls on migrants.
“It appears that much of the burden of job loss during the pandemic fell on foreign workers and manifested itself in return migration, more if possible than in the unemployment figures themselves,” said Doors.
And it has a lot to do with the type of jobs these citizens do.
“Immigrants are disproportionately likely to find themselves employed in the hospitality industry and other related services that require face-to-face contact, making it more likely that they will be made redundant or lose much of their income. “because of the pandemic.
Immigrants often occupy positions in front of the public, which has made them more vulnerable in this pandemic.
“This is clearly my case,” says Angela, an Italian beautician who returned late last year to Carpinone, a small Italian town halfway between Rome and Naples.
“The terms of my contract changed with the pandemic, I started to have fewer hours and less income. And public aid has not made a difference. It was no longer worth staying in London any longer, ”he told BBC Mundo.
The resistance network of these workers is logically smaller, and more so in a city like London. Many cite the price of the house as one of the reasons why it cannot last longer in this situation.
“The price of renting a house is excessively high in London, it’s surreal,” explains Domnguez. “And the condition of the soil is dismal,” he complains.
“It is true that this town is a boiler for money. A lot of your salary goes to pay rent, let alone if you are trying to buy a house. And if you are trying to get away from the center looking something less expensive, transport eats up the difference ”, also deplores Sonia G ..
A complaint that could be transferred to many European capitals, but which in the case of London is particularly important.
The British capital is the most expensive renting city in Europe and the fourth in the world, according to data from consulting firm ECA International.
The median cost of a three-bedroom expat house is $ 6,959 per month, according to their 2020 data. And a one-bedroom apartment can fetch between $ 1,700 and $ 2,000.
Ultimately, the declining workforce due to the thousands of experiences similar to those recounted by these migrants is what “helps to explain why, despite how hard the GDP is affected, unemployment does not. has not yet been hit. levels that many organizations predict, ”Portes analyzes.
And not only that: his report also highlights the situation of universities, as many of them have started teaching at a distance, which has prompted foreign students to decide to leave as well.
“We have already seen problems in sectors which traditionally had large numbers of European workers”, say some representatives of British employers.
Concern in certain economic sectors
Before the pandemic, “London remained attractive for workers in the United Kingdom and abroad, despite the economic disruption expected by Brexit,” said Alec Smith, head of the ECA study on housing.
But the evolution of the exodus has raised alarms in the economic sectors most dependent on European immigration to the United Kingdom.
“We have seen problems in sectors that traditionally had large numbers of European workers. We have members who are suffering from filling positions in food production and transport, particularly in heavy vehicles,” said Neil Carberry, director this Recruitment and Employment Confederation Week, at The Telegraph newspaper.
It is also perceived by UK Hospitality, which represents the hotel industry. According to their data, one-fifth of workers in the sector come from abroad, a figure that rises to 30% in the hotel industry and which in London accounts for three-quarters of the workforce in jobs such as cleaning and the kitchen. Many have left, they say in a statement.
Of greater concern is in sectors such as agriculture, where “99% of the seasonal agricultural workforce comes from the EU,” according to a House of Commons report.
Why do our young people and our workforce reject hard work, when Romanians, Lithuanians and Bulgarians etc. seem to be facing this sector.
And is that the fear of labor shortage has become more acute in recent days.
“We know that many of our workers have returned home, but we do not know how many will return,” said Kate Nicholls, representative of the hotel association.
Return. This is the fear of British employers who, between the pandemic and Brexit, no longer believe they are so attractive to workers who come from outside their borders.
For example, a survey published a few days ago by the body that brings together the manufacturing industry, Make UK, revealed that a third of British manufacturers believe that the country’s ability to attract international talent has been diminished.
There are doubts as to whether the foreign workers who have left will return when the pandemic ends.
Will they come back?
The reality is that as the pandemic rages on, Brexit has also come true. And with it the new immigration rules.
EU citizens who left the UK in the past year will need work visas to return and work in the country. Those with recognized status will be able to return for jobs, but not new immigrants.
“I could go back. But even though I am afraid of the precariousness of employment in my country, I hope not to be obliged to do so,” said Sonia, the Spanish doctor. “The debates on immigration lately haven’t helped me feel any closer to the country either,” she admits.
“I don’t know, maybe in the future,” thinks tattoo artist Alberto Domnguez, who recognizes that Brexit produces uncertainties.
“Let’s wait for the coronavirus to pass.”
Angela isn’t convinced either: “I’d rather stay in my country now, but we’ll see when the pandemic ends.”
Their doubts seem divided. It is too early to know if this exodus of migrants comes and goes, but already before the pandemic, a BBC survey claimed that Europeans’ job searches in job portals had fallen by 12% in the country and by 15% in London in 2019.
And this year has entered the calendar with the biggest drop in European migrants working in the UK since 1997, according to figures from the country’s National Statistics Office.
An uncertainty that the pandemic has amplified. At least for the moment.
.
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