The US already lost in the war with China: it cuts its soy exports 11%

Agrovoz Writing

In its monthly report on grain supply and demand released on Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture (Usda) expressed its expectations regarding the volume of US soybean exports.

In full trade warfare tariffs between the United States and China, the world's largest soybean buyer, Usda has reduced its calculation on the exportable balance by 11 percent; from 62.32 to 55.52 million tonnes

Negative effect

Thus, the final US stock was increased by 50.48%, from 10.48 million tonnes to 15.77 million tonnes. tonnes, far from the 12.82 million calculated by operators, according to the Granar brokerage.

"This is the first official recognition of the" cost "of the trade war with China," they say since Granar.

In line with the decline in US soybean exports, the reduction in Chinese imports: 103 to 95 million tons, according to Usda.

The US report considers that the current scenario will lead to higher soybean prices in the Chinese market and that this will have an impact on lower protein meal consumption, while the decline in oil production will be offset by an increase in imports of soybean, rapeseed and palm oil.

Worldwide, soybean production was estimated by Usda at 359.49 million tonnes, the 355.24 million in June.

Positive effect

In addition, the report mentions that the tariff imposed by China, even if it loses its participation in imports from that country, improves competitiveness for other destinations where its presence will increase to offset part of the loss

The increase in milling in the United States comes from an opportunity offered to oil supply markets and, basically, soybean meal, to following a fall in the industrialization of oilseeds in South America. today, it is a matter of opinion, admit of Granar.

South America 2018/2019

Usda has raised its forecast of soybean harvest volume in Brazil from 118 million tonnes to 120.50 million tonnes, of which planting will begin in September. The export volume of what will become the world's largest producer and exporter was calculated by the agency in 75 million, up from 72.95 million in June.

In the case of Argentina increased its projection of new crop from 56 to 57 million tons, while exports were supported by eight million.