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After months of good news, including declining COVID-19 cases and a very successful vaccination campaign, the tone in the UK has changed.
The total relaxation of restrictions England plans for June is in danger, and possibility of shade that more pressure is coming on the National Health System (NHS).
The obstacle to reopening plans is the variant of coronavirus B.1.617.2, which was first detected in India and has spread around the world.
Concerns have grown over the past week and, for the first time, scientists advising the UK government now believe this variant spread more easily.
The variant is expected to outperform the one that emerged in Kent, known as the British variant, and at some point “dominate“the UK cases.
We are in a race between the virus and the vaccine. Relaxation of restrictions slated for Monday and a more transmissible variant means the virus will still move faster.
However, there is still an excellent uncertainty on the exact propagation speed of variant B.1.617.2.
“This is a key question for which we don’t have the answerSaid Professor Chris Whitty, Chief Medical Advisor to the UK Government.
While it’s only slightly faster than the Kent variant, which still accounts for the overwhelming majority of cases in the UK, there’s not much to fear.
However, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) says there is a “realistic luck“that it spreads 50% faster.
It’s a lot.
Some estimates from India indicate that it could be up to 60% faster, but these calculations are based on genetic sequences of viral samples, and it is not clear to what extent they are representative of the situation in his outfit.
SAGE estimates that the problems would actually start with a 40% more transmissible variant, because “that would lead to a sharp increase in hospitalizations“and put pressure on the NHS.
Uncertainty
The uncertainty is reminiscent of last year, when the variant was first detected in Kent and questions were raised about the approach to controlling the virus.
Still, it’s important to remember that we are not in the same situation than last year.
More than 19 million people, or one third of the UK’s adult population, have received both doses vaccine.
Another 17 million received the first dose. Vaccines weaken, if not eliminate, the link between infection and serious illness.
And the cases in general are also much lower. The Office for National Statistics estimates that fewer than 50,000 people are currently infected with the virus. The figure was 1.25 million at the start of the year.
Currently there are only about 1000 people hospitalized by covid-19.
The problem is that while the vaccines work very well, they are not perfect and not all vulnerable people have been vaccinated.
So if there was another wave of cases resulting from the combination of the easing of measures and a new variant, then a worrying number of people could still end up in hospital.
Keep in mind that these predictions this is not a crystal ball.
Previous mathematical models had predicted a wave in summer, but suddenly became much more optimistic once it became clear that those vaccinated had less likely to spread the virus.
‘Difficult decisions’
Plans to reopen are underway, but the vaccination campaign is being modified to vaccinate faster the most vulnerable.
The bet is that if the variant poses a problem, there will be time to detect signs of Warning, such as increased hospital admissions, then take action.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that if the Indian variant turns out to be “much more transmissible“than others, then the UK is likely to face” tough decisions. ”
In any case, the problem with the more transmissible variants is much greater in countries that have not had successful vaccination programs, where they could cause great harm.
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