The visit of Evo Morales: why Bolivia is today an economic engine of South America

According to International Monetary Fund "A year ago, economic activity was accelerating in almost every region of the world.Many things have changed since: escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, the credit restriction needed in China, Macroeconomic tensions in Argentina and Turkey, the upheavals of the automobile industry in Germany and the contraction of financial conditions that occurred in parallel with the normalization of the monetary policy of the major advanced economies have contributed to significant weakening of global expansionparticularly in the second half of 2018. "This allowed us to project a contraction of growth in 2019 for 70% of the global economy.

The global growth has declined 3.6% in 2018 and would continue this path to reach 3.3% in 2019. The downward revision of growth by 0.2 percentage point for 2019 compared to the January forecast is also widespread. reflects negative reviews of several major economies, such as the euro area, Latin America, the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia, according to the IMF.

Economic growth forecasts for Latin America are 1.4% (2019) and 2.4% (2020), and all seems to result. the only sustainable economy in time was Bolivia.

Between 2001 and 2010, Bolivia's average growth was 3.1%, while between 2011-2018 rose to an average of 5.04%. This was reflected in the GDP per capitain 2005, it was below USD 1,800 for the year 2017 reached almost 2,500 USDwhich means greater wealth among the inhabitants of the Andean-Amazonian economy.

In another aspect, such as unemploymentbetween 2005 and 2018, it was 5.5%, close to the levels of the 1990s, but for the fourth quarter of 2018, the The urban unemployment rate in Bolivia (4.27%) was the lowest in the regionfollowed by Ecuador (4.8%); the highest were recorded in Brazil (11.6%), Colombia (10.2%) and Argentina (9.0%).

The third aspect of the Bolivian economy is the debt as a percentage of GDP. In 2004, it reached 80% of GDP, gradually and with the economic policies adopted, it was reached for the year 2017 a level of 45% of GDP, lower than that of Argentina in 2018 which reaches 78% of its wealth.

The ECLAC growth projections for Bolivia in 2019 they are 4.4%but since 2011, these – as well as the IMF and the WB – have been overcome. One of the government's policies Evo Morales was the granting of a "second bonus" for workers in the public and private sectors Whenever the 4.5% GDP growth target is exceeded, which, together with income transfers in the form of bonds and the annual increase in the minimum wage, greater redistribution of wealth. It is not by chance that the said country occupies first place at the regional level in the reduction of extreme poverty and the second in reducing moderate poverty during the period 2005-2018 (-23 and -26 percentage points respectively, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics).

Evo Morales has undertaken in recent weeks a aggressive international positioning strategy this led him to engage him trade agreements with Dubai, India and Turkey in strategic sectors like mines, hydrocarbons, energy and health. In all three meetings, the Investment opportunities in Boliviawhich bodes for future economic benefits for the Latin American country.

Without a doubt, the good economic performance Bolivia and its correlate with political stability (remember, it was one of the most volatile countries in the region in recent decades) management support President Evo Morales, who has a 64.9% approval and an intention to vote of 37.5% (CELAG survey, 2019) for his fourth term. Despite the same mobilizations against his repostulación and the loss of a referendum this endorses him. Which tells us that, despite the erosion of a management of more than 12 years, maintains strong support for continuity of the project embodied by Morales.

Six months before the presidential elections, the only opposition candidate with the ability to challenge is Carlos Mesa (28.6% intending to vote in the same poll), which must carry a complex past, since he is one of the main representatives of the neoliberal period (he was vice president of Gonzalo Sánchez from Lozada).

Bolivia will have to to choose for the continuity of one successful politico-economic project and the uncertainty of the "new". According to the data presented in the CELAG study, it seems that the majority opts for the first option, but the future is open. We hope that this will be in favor of the majorities of this country.

The economic data show a Bolivia radically different at other times, but the policy is in debate, because the Morales-García Linera couple must consolidate and convince the population to continue the process started in 2005 and that they have today Bolivia as an economic engine of South America Contrast, for example, with Argentinawhose crisis, according to the IMF, has been one of the most serious causes of decline in global growth and a slowdown in trade.

Rebeca Peralta Mariñelarena is Professor of Latin American Studies at UNAM and Coordinator of the CLACSO Geopolitical Working Group, Regional Integration and Global System.

Ernesto Mattos is an economist (UBA) and researcher (CCC / UBACYT)