The wave of insecurity erupts during the election campaign in Uruguay – 31/03/2019

The wave of insecurity broke out mercilessly in Uruguay during the last year. Not only did he sweep away the usual tranquility of his people, but he also filtered heavily during the fledgling election campaign. The opposition took the opportunity to exploit this weak side of the left coalition Frente Amplio, which already has three consecutive periods of government.

The data on this crisis in the neighboring country are devastating. Last year Uruguay recorded a 45.8% increase in homicides, bringing its rate to 11.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. Although this figure is not comparable to that of the continent's most violent nations (Brazil, Mexico, El Salvador), it is an unprecedented record in this country and exceeds that of most countries. territories of South America.

News about murders and robberies has become commonplace. The theme has taken up space in daily conversations and, inevitably, in the campaign for the October national elections.

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Insecurity had a strong impact on the public opinionbut there are also other factors that undermine support for Frente Amplio, the ruling party. The facts of corruption, the economic parade, the condescending stance with Nicolás Maduro's regime and the absence of his personalities in the next elections. Tabaré Vázquez, José Mujica and Danilo Astori will not participate in the electoral fight.

The center-right and conservative sectors have shown some of these aspects to promote their party campaigns. Senator Jorge Larrañaga, who campaigns against the opposition National Party (center-right), led to the militarization of the street – project to add 2,000 soldiers to public security – and to signing of a petition to hold a plebiscite that includes life imprisonment to the Penal Code in case of rape and murder of minors, murderers and multiple murderers.

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In less than a year, the petition was signed by 407,000 people, a figure exceeding the 10% required to hold a plebiscite. And they did it despite boycotting the other parties and the national government.

"For the Frente Amplio, it's an electoral problem." The increase in the rate of homicides, crime is very worrying.Nobody disputes that it is no longer of a thermal sensation.It is the temperature, "he says. Clarin the political scientist Adolfo Garce, researcher at the Institute of Political Science of the Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of the Republic.

The problem is so strong that businessman Edgardo Novick, presidential candidate of the right-wing People's Party, has focused his campaign on one aspect: "Zero Tolerance to Crime".

Opposition politicians are not the only ones to blame the current government for being lazy. The same goes for a large part of the population. President Tabaré Vázquez won the 2014 elections promising to reduce violent robberies by 30%. Not only did they not comply, but they also increased significantly.

For Diego Sanjurjo, a security specialist, one of the causes of this "epidemic" of insecurity is due to a political mistake by the government. "The power in power has clearly underestimated crime," he says.

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Former Uruguayan President Julio María Sanguinetti (83), who has decided to seek for the third time the presidency of his country, which represents the centrist party of Colorado, says that "for the citizens, the main concern is the safety, because that is what has changed the life every day of a country traditionally calm and with a serene life ".

Sanguinetti also points out Another arid subject for the Frente Amplio: the situation in Venezuela. According to the veteran politician, he will play a key role in the definition of the next Uruguayan elections, the government of Tabaré Vázquez having been brutally arrested uncomfortable defense of the Chavez regime.

The left-wing coalition has been in power since 2005, when it replaced the conservative and conservative national and conservative party in Colorado, led by Tabaré Vázquez and José Mujica. But now, the panorama does not seem to favor them.

Uncertain scenario

Polls show a a lot of uncertainty Today, "34% would vote for the Broad Front, 27% for the National Party and 14% for Colorado," Cifra said. Then come the Right People's Party with 3% and the Independent Party (Social Democrats) with 2%. There is 18% of voters undecided.

"It has been 25 years since we have had such a competitive election with such uncertainty," Garce said, pointing out that there is "a set of causes" that have weakened the government. promises he made when he took office, how to reduce crime, not raise taxes and reform education.

Voting is a fact in these elections. Now, the doubt is centered on the reaction of the Uruguayan population in the latter case. In any case, the candidates must still overcome the primaries of June 30th.

Daniel Martínez, current mayor of Montevideo, has better chances in the group Frente Amplio. For his part, Luis Lacalle is becoming the candidate of the National Party (Whites) who will eventually compete. But now, Sanguinetti is growing in measurements. In the midst of this uncertain scenario, the only concrete thing is that if Colorados and Blancos hear about political support, they can defeat the Front.

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