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The White House reiterated Sunday the threat of President Trump close the US border with Mexico, despite warnings that the measure would cause immediate economic harm to consumers and businesses in the United States, while managing to contain little wave of immigrants demanding to enter the US United States.
Seals the border with Mexico, the third largest trading partner of the United States, disrupt supply chains of major US builders., would lead to rapid price increases for grocery shoppers and would result in prosecution of the federal government, according to specialists and business executives.
"You will first notice that prices are rising incredibly fast. After … we will see layoffs in a day or two, "said Lance Jungmeyer, president of the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas in Nogales, Arizona. This will not contribute to border security. "
However, two of the president's most important advisers defended the move on Sunday's news. Acting White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, said in "This week"According to ABC News, it would take" something dramatic "to persuade the president to abandon his plans to close the border, and President Kellyanne Conway's advisor insisted on" Fox News Sunday " for the president's threat "This is certainly not a hoax."
Trump unleashed the latest immigration-related controversy on Friday, when he complained to reporters that Mexico had not stopped the influx of migrants, a point that he pointed out in a tweet the next day. "If they are not arrested, we will close the border, we will do it and we will keep it for a long time. "Trump said Friday.
Administration officials have not provided details of the intentions of the president and border control officials have not received instructions to prepare for the closure, according to a government official. Customs and Border Protection of the United Stateswho spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the issue. The implementation of such an order would require time to inform the Congress and the unions that represent border patrol officers and customs officials, said the official.
A Pentagon spokesman said that the army, which has about 5,300 soldiers in the border region, has not received such orders either.
Mexican officials have tried to avoid aggravating the situation, without making public comments since Friday, when the President Andrés Manuel López Obrador "We will help, collaborate, we want to have good relations with the US government, we will not discuss these issues," he said.
Closing the border could complicate efforts to ensure congressional ratification of Trump's new trade deal with Mexico and Canada, said economist Phil Levy, who worked on trade issues at the White House with President George W. Bush and now He is a prominent member of the Chicago Council on Global Issues.
The agreement between the United States and Mexico-Canada, the distinctive success of the "America First" business offensive launched by the president, is facing a difficult battle in Congress.
The US border and Mexico is a key artery of the global economy, which has recorded more than $ 611 billion in cross-border trade last year, according to the Department of Commerce. Every day, more than 1,000 trucks cross the border into the port of Calexico East, California, while more than 11 daily international trains pbad through Laredo, Texas, according to the same source. US Department of Transportation
In Laredo, business leaders and elected officials held frenetic teleconferences over the weekend over the threat of closure. Gerry Schwebel, Executive Vice President of the International Division of IBC Bank based in Laredo, said that traffic between the United States and Mexico had sometimes been limited, but only temporarily and in an emergency, such as floods, tornadoes or security checks after 9/11 2001, terrorist attacks.
Even a slowdown in the border could create a shortage of goods and services and lead to higher prices for consumers, he said, adding: "If you want to create an economic crisis, closing the border will cause an economic crisis".
The economic consequences of a total closure would be immediate and serious, trade experts said, and US automakers and farmers would be the first to feel the effects.
"It's impractical and unrealistic, and I do not think I can really do it."said Rufus Yerxa, chairman of the National Trade Council, which represents multinational companies," there is no doubt that many companies would face legal proceedings. "
In his appearances on television, Mulvaney also reiterated the government's intention to end hundreds of millions of dollars of aid to the countries of the "Northern Triangle" that are Guatemala, Honduras and the United States. Salvador. which caused many people to flee north.
The three countries are the main source of a growing wave of migrants, including caravans of families with children, who have crossed the US border to seek asylum in a growing humanitarian crisis.
"The democrats did not make us an egoYes, two months ago, we said that what was happening at the border was a crisis, a humanitarian crisis, a security crisis, "said Mulvaney in" This week ".
He called on the Mexican government to strengthen its southern border and said Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador needed to do more to prevent their citizens from entering Mexico.
Until then, said Mulvaney, the administration sees the need to close the entry points to free border officers "to go patrol the desert, where we have no walls" .
This redistribution of border agents threatens to undermine trade. On Friday, the local border police office in Tucson announced that it would immediately stop processing Sunday commercial trucks in the port of Nogales, Arizona.
To treat "an unprecedented humanitarian and border security crisis along our southwestern border"The agency said it has redistributed 750 border officers from the points of entry into the areas affected by the flow of immigrants.
Jungmeyer, the representative of the agricultural products industry, said that the reduction of six days of activity a week would have a significant impact on the fresh produce industry, which operates according to a delivery schedule "just in time".
At this time of year, trucks travel to Mexico to harvest watermelons and table grapes. Once full, they go to the United States, where they drop their cargo in American warehouses before quickly returning to Mexico for another load.
The elimination of a day's work in a port that handled 337,179 Last year, the trucks would interrupt this carefully calibrated program.
"Ruin the crops. Ruining your ability to serve customers on the US side of the border, "said Jungmeyer.
Suddenly, the interruption of the pbadage of people and goods between the United States and Mexico would also have the effect of interrupting the flow of parts sent to US factories, which could stop production. Similarly, refrigerated trucks filled with perishable goods, such as beef, would block the crossing of borders.
"The first question would be: where do they place it?William Reinsch, who worked at the Ministry of Commerce under Bill Clinton, said: "Things are going to pile up at the border because they are already on the way. "
Arturo Sarukhan, Mexico's ambbadador to the United States from 2007 to 2013, said that state farms, many of which supported Trump in 2016, would be among the victims. Close the border would be a "self-inflicted injury"he said.
"I will not try to guess if the president is playing chicken, bluffing or spitting what goes through my headSarukhan said Sunday, "The reality is that it would be extremely expensive in the United States in terms of trade and economic well-being. "
Stephen Legomsky, professor emeritus at the University of Washington Law School and former US immigration and citizenship attorney, said that closing the ports would likely result in a court case. because it would violate federal immigration laws. .
Trump "can not close all the ports of the border"said Legomsky. "If that happens, that would actually compromise the whole Congress strategy with regard to people who can enter the United States and who can not."
It is also unlikely that the closure of the border will slow down the influx of asylum seekers, he said, because the federal law allows them to seek protection as soon as they arrive on American soil. "In any case, the closing of the authorized points would only generate more traffic between the points of entry where people can enter illegally," he said.
Officials insist that inaction is not an option. It is estimated that about 100,000 migrants arrived at the border this month, said Mulvaney, a human tide that has submerged US authorities. And this provoked a strong partisan disagreement on possible remedies.
Saturday, Trump tweeted: "Our detention areas are at their peak and we will no longer take illegal areas. The next step is to close the border!"
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