The world at war again (commercial): the dangerous American-Chinese shock – 06/07/2018

Despite the bad winds of the situation, China has a lot to celebrate this year. December will be the 40th anniversary of Gaige Kaifang, the process of reform and opening announced in December 1978 by the legendary Deng Xiao Ping who made the Asian giant the current successful capitalist actor . When China defeated Maoist schematism and made that leap, the giant was a tattered guy who accounted for only 1.8% of the global economy. Today, this portion is 18.2%. In the midst of this slip, 17 years ago, China entered the World Trade Organization by anchoring its place of accumulation with the rest of the actors of globalization.

These combined factors are what makes the Central Empire the second largest global GDP, 11 billion, just below the United States; this is configured as the largest trading power; the third destination of foreign direct investment and the owner of the world's largest reserves, 3.12 billion dollars. This extraordinary sum includes US Treasury bonds, which place the Asian giant as the biggest creditor of Washington, its rival of the trade war that has just been drawn this Friday, scary for the world.

Beijing plans to celebrate her birthdays with the conviction that He will be able to escape the heavy pressure imposed by the White House. The strategy of the millennial kingdom is to convert its protectionist offensive into a cost for Donald Trump and that this coup dominates the thoughtless omens of the tycoon. But nothing seems so simple. China is right to say that these disputes result in self-inflicted harm to those who generate them and that it is enough to wait for the reality to show it.

The same North American company, quoted extensively in the Chinese official press, loss of jobs, among other internal costs that these policies will generate. The same criterion has just been raised by the Federal Reserve, in line with similar calls from the IMF, warning against the growth of uncertainty and risk for entrepreneurs. The North American Chamber of Commerce, in turn, has highlighted the "serious threat" that this conflict will bring to a "global trade war", suggesting a scenario where all players are isolated in their efforts to survive. The history of the last century is disturbing as to how these disputes went on and on in their end.

Trump translates trade deficits as a defeat and the numbers of the trade make him feel that way. His country's red with China in 2016 was $ 347 billion. A year later, it had risen to 375 billion. By the way, many of these products come from relocated US companies as part of a global world where the production chain is internationalized, looking for balances between prices and quantities.

This is not what the mogul wants to see. His war threatens global trade balances like never before and dampens the sluggish growth that the global economy is recording. This fight will reduce trade and will create a legal vacuum in countries that bid below these giants. The scenario is complicated, by the way, because Trump has erected other battles of his protectionist apotheosis against European allies and his neighbors Canada and Mexico for steel and aluminum , and threatens similar sanctions to the German auto industry. China's strategy to face this challenge has some weaknesses related to an overestimation of its position of power, a fact that resembles it more than would differentiate it from its American rival. An example of this behavior is the management that Beijing has undertaken to try to build a common block with the European Union that stands against American policies. Deputy Prime Minister Liu He, Prime Minister Li Kequiang's right hand man, was one of the central negotiators who traveled from Brussels to Berlin to build a united front that generates unique pressure on Washington [19659012]. Prime Minister Li Kequiang. EFE ” observer=”” data-observer-function=”loadLazyImg”/>