there are nearly 25 million tons of unsold soybeans

Uncertainty and paralysis. The overwhelming triumph of Alberto Fernández over Mauricio Macri within PASO disrupted the economy. And the domain is no exception.

Market experts agree that the dollar's surge has paralyzed any decision to sell the producers, which is no less in a context where much of the unsold soybean season remains.

These are fresh dollars that, already left behind the peak cereal export season, may not be entering the circuit in the coming weeks, which would further add to the tension on the exchange rate.

Analyst Gustavo López, of the consulting firm Agritrend, badured Professional that "last season, which has reached a production of 56 million tons of soya already sold about 31 million.This means they lack to sell about 25 million tons".

Considering that in the Chicago market, each tonne represents approximately 316 million US dollars, This means that the soybeans found in silobolsa or in the crushing industry, while waiting for producers to give the "ok" to sell, equates to about $ 8,000 million. Of this total, about $ 2 billion would be deductions.

It should be noted that, despite the mega-crops, agriculture had paid, at the end of the first half of the year, about US $ 10,718 million, or less than US $ 11,560 million in the same period . 2018. The problem for the government is that until the market is built, business will not come back.

"The market is in shock. In the Rosario region, there was almost no activity. During the morning, two exporters notified the prices openly. But in the case of soy, there was absolute radio silence. The same thing in the case of corn: there was no operation. Everyone is focused on the evolution of the financial market in the coming days, "said Enrique Sarthes, an badyst at Intagro Brokerage.

"The producer now has the privilege of positioning himself on cereals, which is his motto, which is why we expect that the market will remain at the rendezvous in the coming days and that very few of the Companies will be seen, at least until the great uncertainty prevails is dispelled, "he added.

This is precisely the million dollar question: "The problem here, to see if companies are reactivated in the local market, is to define when the market and the dollar will stabilize." Basically, the producer wonders what he does, with money once he sells. "

In parallel, Guillermo Villagra, director of OpenAgro, agreed that "today, what dominates, it is the prudence".

"The markets are very immobile.Nothing nobody buys and nobody sells.It is likely that there will be an opportunity transaction for those who have to earn money and close the current price, but no big business is expected, "he said.

The "double Nelson"

In a context of high volatility and uncertainty, Sarthes added a fact no less important: if there was little incentive for producers to detach themselves from the commodity, the news coming from outside do not help either.

"The moment the domestic market is coinciding with news from the United States is not encouraging for Argentina," said the expert.

It turns out that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has just released its latest report, which did not help the price of cereals internationally.

"On the one hand, they lowered the estimate of soybean production in the United States from 104 to 100 million tonnes, a variable that would play in favor of Argentina," Sarthes said. . However, "in return, The USDA not only did not lower the maize estimate but even slightly increased it. "

Indeed: on a forecast of 352.4 million in the previous report, a scenario of 353 million had been adopted. Although this is a very slight increase, it contrasts with the most pessimistic forecasts of badysts, who came to indicate a production still below 310 million.

For example, soybeans, which closed at more than $ 320 per tonne, dropped $ 4 on Monday morning to the benchmark.

"The Argentine market is therefore suffering from a kind of double Nelson: a falling price in Chicago and a great uncertainty at the local level that paralyze any operation," said Intagro's expert.

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