They claim that in 2019, Argentina will be the seventh worst recession in the world

In this regard, he stressed that the membership of Argentina in this group was not only temporary, but was part of a historical behavior that has accustomed the Argentines to live in a "extremely unstable economy".

According to Ecolatina, not only is this volatility high, but it has also characterized the economy of our economy in recent decades. "

Since 1950, 35% of the years have been recessive, but this average does not take into account specific cases. A 30-year-old Argentinean has spent 40% of his life in recession and one of the 20 years he has spent almost half his life in this state, "he said, adding that these figures can only be compared to those in the Congo, Iraq, Syria or Zambia, countries that can hardly be described as market economies.

For the consultant, although the engine of the 2018 recession was similar to that of 2016 (significant rise in exchange rates), the improvement in activity would not have occurred in the future. 39, exchange rate appreciation the pillar found in 2017.

In this context, he argued that the first quarter data explain this relationship. In January and February, activity posted sizeable growth in seasonally adjusted terms, while the exchange rate remained close to the floor of the no-intervention zone, but the exchange rate for the month of March (11% between points) accelerated inflation. reduced the real wage and raised the policy rate by drying green shoots in the first two months, he said.

At the same time, he added that Brazil, which should grow at close to 2% over the year, experienced a slight contraction in the first quarter, further complicating the local recovery. Thus, for March, the level of activity was lower than in December.

"The March figure surprised us negatively to the point of requiring us to adjust our growth projection for the year.The 0.3 percentage point adjustment involved moving from a contraction of 1. , 4% annual average to 1.7% The data is even more discouraging if it is calculated per capita.In this case, the fall would be 2.7%, leaving us practically at the same standard of living as there is ten years, "he warned.

At the same time, for the next few years and in the face of the next presidential cycle, he felt that economic performance would depend on "the capacity of the elected government to dispel doubts about the repayment of the public debt". In this regard, he said that the current payment mechanism with the IMF stipulates that Argentina should pay US $ 52 billion between 2021 and 2023 and it is expected that the country will not be able to resort to the market for debtors of this magnitude.

"This would imply the need to rethink the payment schedule with the agency.As long as the interlocutor is a government willing to make concessions (change of the pension system and the labor market, for example) and able to negotiate laws with a good deal of Congress (it takes two-thirds to move forward with profound changes) the IMF is expected to accept a change in the payment structure, dilating it over time ", he declares.

He added that if this happened, agency relations would no longer be covered by the "confirmation" agreement to move to a long-term term known as "program". extensive installations ".

"Although the prospects are complex, to the extent that these hotbeds of conflict are resolved, Argentina would find a better macroeconomic scenario than that observed over the last decade: primary fiscal balance, relative price alignment and external deficit. limited, "he concluded. .