They claim that the trade surplus will reach $ 14 billion in 2019

"Beyond the local weaknesses, it should be noted that the improvement of the commercial result would be even greater if the Brazilian economy finally developed – its growth forecasts went from 2.5% at the beginning of year to less than 1% last week- and if our terms of trade, that is, the prices of our export products relative to those of import did not fall (-17% year-to-date in August), product of the record harvest that underpinned the international supply of petroleum products and the trade war between the United States and China, which maintains the growth of the Asian giant ", analyzed.

According to the report, the trade surplus will occur although the trade deficit has worsened compared to the first half of 2018 compared to the same period of 2017 (from $ 2,600 million to $ 4,900 million). US).

The improvement was mainly in response to the collapse in imports, which represents nearly 30% year-to-year cumulated until August (latest available data), and not to the increase in exports, which increased slightly less than 4% ai in the first eight months of the yearEcolatina detailed.

"Therefore, the recovery of the external front is more of a by-product of the crisis than the result of greater competitiveness of trade or the opening of new markets. For these two policies to produce concrete results, it will be necessary to keep them in time, "he added.

Towards a record surplus in 2020, what will be the repayment of the debt?

"Unfortunately, economic performance will not improve in 2020," said the consultant. And as an example, I pointed out that the latest survey of the Central Bank's market expectations showed a 1.5% decline in GDP.

In addition, he said that despite exchange control and the obligation to liquidate foreign currency from exports within a maximum of five business days, "the dollar would close next year around 90 ARS / USD according to the report ". Thus, he added that an advance close to 35% in 2020 would, according to the MER, be concluded in December 2019 with a currency around 65 ARS / USD, a level slightly lower than the inflation rate. (+ 40% ia).

In another order, he stressed that the real exchange rate would remain relatively stable over the next year. If we consider the high amounts of the relevant public debt (towards the private sector and the international financial organizations) in foreign currencies facing our country in 2020 (US $ 25 000 million, or more than 5% of GDP), the market credit will remain unchanged Virtually closed, this evolution seems logical: the peso would not be strengthened, even in a context of significant restrictions of the demand of currencies.

"We expect a trade surplus of nearly US $ 19 billion for next year, a historical record measured in current dollars. A positive outcome of this magnitude will be fundamental for two reasons, "he said.

Jan noted, noted this, on the one hand, its traditional impact on the tradable goods sectors. On the other hand, because the private sector will contribute new dollars to the debt payments that the public sector has to make, "he said.

"As this year, the improvement in the trade balance of 2020 would be achieved both by a drop in imports (estimated at 5% yoy), in the order of US $ 48 billion, as well as by an advance of exports (about 3.5% over one year), which would reach $ 67,000 million, "said the report.

He stressed that the explanations for this dynamic would be similar to those of 2019: an internal demand in red and a depreciated peso, which have a negative impact on the domestic situation but generate green shoots on the outside.

And he concluded by stating that by 2020, the external front will once again become a lone star within an Argentine economy affected in most cases.