They increased the estimate of the soy harvest – :: El Litoral – News – Santa Fe – Argentina

High Estimate of Soybean Harvest

They warned that supply in the United States will increase to record levels due to the trade war. Could generate a downward trend in prices

Editorial El Litoral

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The Argentinian soybean crop of the 2018/19 cycle, whose planting begins in the spring, would be 57 million tonnes, above the estimated 56 million in June, said in a report the US Department of Agriculture (Usda, by its acronym in English).

In its monthly report, Usda left stable forecasts for the 2018/19 cycle of a 41 million-tonne crop of corn and 19.5 million tonnes of wheat in Argentina.

On the world outlook, Usda said that the United States soybean supply will reach the higher level than is registered because a trade war with China, the biggest Oilseed buyer in the world, will reduce exports.

Usda, in its monthly forecast of supply and demand, estimated agricultural sector stocks 2018/19 in 580 million bushels, an increase from its estimate of 39, there is a month of 385 million, before China's tariffs on imports of American soybeans.

If completed, the total would exceed the previous record of 574 million bushels of soybeans remaining at the end of the 2006/07 crop season.

"Changes in trade in soybean and products reflect the impact of China's recently imposed import duties, in addition to other changes in the Government has reduced its forecast of Export of soybeans from 250 million bushels to 2.040 million bushels.

Usda also estimates that Brazilian production will be record, with some 120.5 million tons. "In the market, we will have to also closely monitor what China is doing, which seems to replace US soybeans with other flour imports, in what is a paradigm shift, "said Pablo Adreani, market badyst. corn, Usda has increased corn production in the United States by 5 million tons.Thus, the crop of farmers would increase from 356 to 361 million tons. "This is a significant increase and impacts on US exports. We expect a pessimism for Chicago, with the possibility of bringing down the global market in countries like Brazil and Argentina, "warned the badyst.

Adreani recalled that the quotations for corn in Argentina's new season was firm, due to demand that was expected in 2019. "With this correction made by the Usda regarding the US harvest. you enter a cone of doubts as to whether you will maintain firmness. We must be vigilant to see how the market reacts, "he acknowledged