They predict the economy will grow by 8.1% this year, but warn that it is essential to agree with the IMF

“We estimate that the economy will grow by 8.5% in 2021, a figure which is higher than the estimate of the 2022 national budget project and comes closer and closer to the optimistic scenario proposed by FIDE at the start of this year. year. Even this number could be higher if the budgetary program takes a more intense expansionary rhythm ”, FIDE noted in its October report.

In this sense, the Foundation stressed that “the sustainability of this bull cycle is decisively determined by the structural pressures on the demand for dollars” among which, in addition to the tensions of real origin, there is also a “timeline of arrears “with the IMF from March 2022, when a first disbursement of US $ 2,855 million should be made.

In total, according to the two agreements signed with the agency during the government of Mauricio Macri, in 2022 17.8 billion dollars should be transferred to the IMF, in 2023 18.1 billion dollars and, finally, about 4.6 billion dollars. dollars in 2023.

“Generating the necessary consensus around an agreement to restructure these liabilities is perhaps one of the most relevant issues of economic policy”, underlines the FIDE report, which considers “essential” that this agreement includes ” conditions compatible with the objectives of growth and social inclusion “. and which, in turn, makes it possible “to erase the devaluation expectations which entrench the macroeconomic scenario”.

On the other hand, on the basis of budget projections, they stressed that it is expected “that public spending will continue to play an expansive role on domestic demand, with particular emphasis on investment” although the expected strengthening of consumption “is subject to modifications, the dynamics of prices and incomes have been confirmed throughout this year.

“The viability of the official assumption of 33% inflation for next year depends, among other things, on the inertia left by 2021. Our end-to-end projection to December 2021 remains around 45%”, details the report.

“In the near future, the ability of economic leaders to oxygenate the external front in order to erase devaluation expectations and to arbitrate more effectively in the distributive supply are two central components of the anti-inflationary strategy,” he said. he concluded.