They warn against a strong instability and possible pressure exerted by the "bomb" of Leliq | Chronic

By Juan Strasnoy Peyre

March's shake-out, which left the dollar climbing 10.6%, revived fears about the vulnerabilities of the current monetary plan. Many badysts warn against the acceleration of Leliq stock growth, which is already around one trillion pesos, and claim that the bombing power of its bomb is greater than that of Lebac, whose disarmament has triggered the currency crisis of 2018. Read more Among the recent cimbronazos whose demand is still moderate, the risk of a new period with a sharp devaluation in the coming months increases.

There are many pressures on the exchange rate: inflationary responsiveness competes with fixed pesos weighing rates that do not react at the same rate as the reference rate, an economy that shows no signs of reactivation, the looming economy. instability of world markets before the possibility of economic stagnation of major powers and typical pre-election dollarization. The weapons of a central bank managed by the IMF to confront them are limited to the recurring reinforcements of the monetary turnstile that stifle the real economy.

For the former head of economic research at the monetary entity Jorge Carrerathe current regime is even more vulnerable than the previous one. "The replacement of Lebac by Leliq has aggravated the gaps"he warned. For several reasons: the transition from the reference rate to the rate received by depositors is worse, the band allows the dollar to jump without the BCRA and Leliq intervene, although they are in the hands of banks, they are linked to term deposits. In just six months, the letter stock was multiplied by 2.5 and was already worth $ 210,000 million. The main latent risk lies in this growing and potentially dollarizable mbad.

In just six months, the Leliq has paid $ 210,000 million in interest and its stock is worth about $ 1 billion.

An Itega report agreed that "With Leliq's new scheme, the focus goes from Lebac to deadlines"and stated that "High rates can be a relief for current currency tensions, but they can also fill the pump of a future race". Indeed, the operators point out that the demand, still moderate, which pushed up the dollar in March, was born from a disarmament of fixed term futures which was reversed with the rise of the rates in the second fortnight of the month. "The program has gone to great lengths to get people to stay on term, but the depositor knows that there is a no-intervention zone in which the dollar can increase by 10% in a few days without the ability to control official, as was the case in March, which removes the rent he could earn in three months, which will allow them to start making money while waiting to see what happens during the electoral transition "Carrera said in dialogue with BAE Business.

The large volume of fixed terms, well in excess of one trillion pesos, must be added to the large maturity of bonds and pesos bonds as a source of exchange rate pressures.

The chances of a production increase and the chances of containing it will be limited, even more after June, when the soybean harvest is over. "I was waiting for turbulence in June, but agents anticipate"Carrera said. And he warned: "A shock of exchange with overflow can occur".