They warn that due to global warming, there will be more storms, harsh winters and droughts in Europe and the east coast of the United States.

The circulation of the Atlantic Ocean which supports the Gulf Stream, the weather system that generates a warm and temperate climate in Europe, is in its weakest point in more than a millennium, and climate collapse is the likely cause, according to new data released this week.

Further weakening of the South Atlantic Gyre Circulation (AMOC) could result in more storms, more intense winters and an increase in damaging heat waves and droughts.

According to an article in the British newspaper The Guardian, Scientists predict AMOC will weaken further as global warming continues, and it could be reduced from 34% to 45% by the end of this century, which could bring us closer to a “tipping point” where the system becomes irrevocably unstable.

A weakened Gulf Stream too would increase sea level on the Atlantic coast of the United States, with potentially disastrous consequences.

Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, co-author of the study published Thursday in Geoscience of nature, explained that a A weakened AMOC would increase the number and severity of storms hitting Britain and causing more heat waves in Europe.

“In 20 or 30 years, it is likely to weaken further, which will inevitably influence our climate, we would therefore see an increase in storms and heat waves in Europe, and a rise in sea level on the east coast of the United States, ”he added.

Rahmstorf and scientists from Maynooth University in Ireland and University College London in the UK concluded that the current weakening had not been observed for at least the last 1000 years, after studying the sediments, Greenland ice cores and other indirect data that revealed weather patterns of the past. AMOC has been measured since 2004.

AMOC is one of the largest ocean circulation systems in the world, which carries warm surface water from the Gulf of Mexico to the North Atlantic, where it cools and becomes saltier until it flows north to Iceland, which in turn draws more warm Caribbean water. This broadcast is accompanied by winds which also help to bring a mild and humid climate to Ireland, the United Kingdom and other parts of Western Europe.

Scientists have long predicted a weakening of AMOC due to global warming and raised concerns about a complete collapse. The new study determined that that point is likely decades away, but that still-high greenhouse gas emissions could bring it closer.

Rahmstorf said that “if we don’t stop global warming we are more and more likely to cause it (…)” The consequences of this are so enormous that even a 10% chance of causing damage would be an unacceptable risk. “

AMOC is a large part of the Gulf Stream, often described as the “conveyor belt” that carries hot water from Ecuador to Europe. But the larger weather system would not collapse completely if ocean circulation became unstable, as winds also play a key role.. Circulation has been interrupted before, under different circumstances, for example at the end of the last ice age.

In addition to causing more extreme weather conditions in Europe and the east coast of the United States, the weakening of AMOC could have serious consequences for Atlantic marine ecosystems, altering populations of fish and other marine life.

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