This is the economic plan of Alberto F.

Guillermo Nielsen is the economic reference of the Front de tous. That's why, every time he talks and explains the next Argentina, the market is listening very carefully.

In the hands of the very high chances that Alberto Fernández must prevail in the next elections in October, if Nielsen refers to the dollar, to the agreement with the IMF or to inflation, investors are attentive because they believe that many of these definitions can then be seen. in the roadmap of the next government.

On this occasion, Nielsen had an in-depth dialogue with the Brazilian economic environment Valor, in which he examined, point by point, the measures that will be taken from the first day in the event that Alberto F. hangs the presidential band.

Dollar, inflation, wages, agreement with the IMF, retentions, fiscal policy, import control and other problems have been addressed by Nielsen with regard to the future of Silver 2020 if Macri is beaten in the elections of 39; October.

1. The model will be Nestor Kirchner's first government

When asked if a prospective government of Alberto F. would be similar to that of Cristina Kirchner, Nielsen denied it. "This would look more like the early Néstor government, characterized by much lower levels of inflation, lower interest rates and tighter control over public spending. It is necessary to take as reference Argentina of 2003, 2005 and 2006. This is where we will find the type of economic policy that we propose.", a point.

"But, of course, with some broader aspects of the social policy that characterized the government of Cristina." But the basics of the economy will be to return to a strong and strong fiscal policy as soon as possible, and also monetary, allowing the economic function in a mode of growth, which is not the case today in Argentina and is characterized by a strong recession, "he said.

2. One of its first steps will be to stimulate investment in Vaca Muerta

"We are preparing a number of measures and will send the bills to Congress for early approval. But the most important is a new regulatory framework for oil and gas, different from what it is today.Nielsen anticipated.

As he clarified, "the idea is to change the tax and accounting treatment, depending on the current situation in the US basin. In other words, a reduction in the Tax and accelerated depreciation as an accounting standard.The tax on corporate profits, in the meantime it would be 20%, while today it is 35%. "

"We expect that the unconventional oil and gas revolution, which has taken 15 years in the United States, could happen in Argentina in half as much, and we believe this is possible because technology is already available and we want to change some of the rules of the game, "he said.

3. Your plan to contain inflation includes a large social agreement

"A social agreement will be proposed to reduce inflation levels as soon as possible.It will be a very important agreement in terms of price and salary to moderate inflation, which is one of the big problems. from Argentina, "said Nielsen.

"It would be an agreement of price and salary. And, on the other hand, a fiscal and monetary policy coordinated with this pact. Inflation is not a solution without a sound fiscal policy and a non-expansive monetary policy under the planned budget sobriety program.", explained the front of the Front of All.

"It would be a sort of pact of the Moncloa (1977 agreement of Spain between the parties, the unions and the businessmen in which they committed to follow a program political and economic during the transition period after Franco.) With preprogrammed price and wage increases, a fiscal and monetary policy consistent with the objectives of this agreement, "he said.

4. Look for a two-point interest rate level

Nielsen said that for the economy to work "the real interest rate must be very low, at one or two points in real terms".

"The problem is that the Macri government will leave us very high interest rates, especially because of a total lack of confidence." The Argentine company has long since lost confidence in the Macri government , and our task will be: First, get it back, "he explained.

5. Will aim for a sustainable fiscal policy

"The The level of debt to which Argentina has been subjected requires that the country registers a primary surplus. It's not enough to have a budget balance, it also needs a primary surplus "outfit.

"It will have to be a cost-adjusted management, all of which needs to be closely monitored and it will be a key part of the initial work, but it will also be a matter of realism." The problem today is not to have a primary surplus, but the interest rate on the debt to pay in the coming years for all the debts contracted under the Macri government, "he criticized.

6. You will have the choice between a floating exchange rate

According to Nielsen, the strategy will in principle bea floating exchange rate. I do not think that a fixed exchange rate is appropriate. We must maintain the competitive exchange rate. "

The economist had already predicted that one of the keys was to reduce the volatility of the currency. To that end, he had stated that the "reserve requirement" would be reinstated in order to discourage the entry of speculative financial capital, with reference to the measure set out in the months preceding the renegotiation of the 2005 debt, when the "reserve requirement" was reinstated. he accompanied the former Minister of Economy Roberto in Lavagna management

7. They will shorten the time to settle exports and there will be "reasonable" limits

"There will certainly be changes in the exchange rate and absolute freedom in the capital market, which ended up characterizing the Macri government and which were very negative.It is because the interest rates very high and monetary instruments were combined, which gave rise to the "carry trade" and it cost us dearly. Then there will be some limitations, but very reasonable, "he said.

Among the measures planned, he stated that "It will be necessary that the dollars from exports enter the market in a time that we still do not know if it will be in eight or twelve months.But they will have to be liquidated. It is not possible that it takes years to be able to liquidate exports. This creates a situation of volatility in the foreign exchange market that we must avoid. "

8. Renegotiation with the MFI will be important

"Since Argentina has an agreement with the IMF, we will have to discuss it with the Fund, but it is not that we will do what we want, but there must be a negotiation." Macri will deliver a country poor on one side and on the other, a country in a delicate situation with a low degree of freedom in the agreement with the Fund, "he said.

According to Nielsen, it is not possible to maintain the current agreement with the IMF: "We will seek a greater degree of freedom under this agreement. We understand that if we win, we will have a popular mandate given by the votes that authorize us and oblige us to renegotiate the agreement with the Fund. "

The renegotiation will cover all aspects: "We will seek a renegotiation of everything: payments, conditions … We must be realistic about the economic and social situation of the country.We must think that a very important part of the population can not pay for utilities in the form of electricity or water gas.We must bear in mind that in Argentina today, half of young people are poor.This is the biggest obligation to solve. "

9. They will not reduce agricultural holdbacks, but will evaluate measures for other exporters.

"With the financial problem left by the Macri government, it is very clear that we can not put an end to payroll deductions. This is not really feasible. This is not advisable, but feasible, "said Nielsen, who recalled that" it is the Macri government that has imposed withholding on sales on almost all exports, not only the l '. agriculture, but also the services and high technology sectors ".

"Macri has taxed almost everything Argentina exports, and we will have to see how we can reduce it, and it's a very negative policy anyway." No country has made any progress in sanctioning exports. This seems very inappropriate, a very irrational tax. "He said.

10. Imports will not come back

When asked Valor if they were going to return the controls to the import, the economist replied, "No, not at all."

"I am not in favor of import controls. Yes, I am in favor of a strong increase in exports. That's why what we want to do in the oil and gas sector in Argentina is so important, "he said.

11. It will seek to maintain good bilateral relations with Brazil.

Nielsen played down pbadages between Alberto F. and Bolsonaro. "The countries have neither friends nor enemies, they have permanent interests, Brazil has permanent interests in Argentina and Argentina has permanent interests in Brazil." With the exception of football, Argentines are deeply sympathetic to Brazil, "he said.

"I am very optimistic and I think that once elected Alberto Fernández, we will have much closer relations than with Brazil.. I do not give much importance to the differences I see in some statements. I think that deep Argentina and deep Brazil have many coincidences, and that it is above all, "he said.

12. The Mercosur-EU agreement will be re-examined

Nielsen said "our position is very much in favor of the agreement." However, he specified that "We must see what has been done because the truth is that we do not know the text."

"This agreement is something that we have been working on for many years in Argentina and Brazil, but we have to look at the details of everything, and then we have to take up the challenge, particularly in Argentina, but also in Brazil. to have a healthier and more stable macroeconomy so that the agreement with the EU can really bring benefits to the economies, "he concluded.

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