Marcos Buscaglia, of Alberdi Partners, states that if the one imposed is Macri, the BCRA will then have to manage an appreciation of the exchange rate
The primary elections that will take place in the coming days are the only issue that matters to businessmen and finance. What will happen during the elections, what will be the gap between the candidates and what will be the reaction of the market on August 12 in the morning are revealing questions for investors.
It is clear that Mauricio Macri is the favorite among them (the prices of the bonds and the dollar reflect this expectation) and if the result is unfavorable for the government, a real rise of the dollar and the country risk could skyrocket.
Where would these variables go ?: Several market participants have determined that if the Fernández-Fernández formula is chosen, the dollar would rise to $ 70 and the country risk to 1,500 basis points (with a cap of 2,000). Pre-election exaggeration?
"Alberto is going to have a lot of trouble when he is president." "There is doubt about what they would like to do, the question is how does he convince Doña Rosa not to buy dollars." He must take a turn at 180 degrees as Lula did in Brazil market-friendly cabinet members.Call someone from the market.That would give him a minimal chance to convince people to stay in pesos and renew their deposits and their letters The diagnosis was made by Marcos Buscaglia, director of Alberdi Partners and former chief economist at Citi and Bank of America in New York.
At an event in Balanz Capital, which earned an evocative title ("Should I stay or should I leave"), Buscaglia – like many links with foreign investors – reaffirmed that the market "was attracted" in the expectation of a Macri win or a step difference between 3 and 4 points. "If Alberto gets closer to the 45% in the STEP, the market will understand that the game is over and will act accordingly," he said.
In case of tight results during the primaries, which would become a good prelude to the October elections, the president of Alberdi Partners believes that the market will head for a rally with Argentina.
"If Macri wins the elections, at the very most that the world explodes, there will be no chance for a debt default.The market is more subinverted in Argentina, in recent years they have charged the coupons bonds without taking more securities.This lowers the percentage of the portfolio, "he said.
For Buscaglia, "the markets will renew Macri's confidence in the long term". In fact, he predicts that the economy will become strong if the president manages to be reelected.
On the political front, Juan Germano, director of Isonomy, was one of the most recognized Wall Street consultants with Poliarquía.
"By the time the government stabilized the dollar, its chances were increasing," he said. "Now we see a couple's choice."
The specialist commented that both candidates "scraped the pot" to add new voters. "There is structural parity, both in the STEP scenario and in the prospective scenario," he said.
And, for the peace of mind of the investors and clients of the event's financial company, he risked that Alberto would not make 5 or 6 points of difference to Macri, it would be more equal, "compared to what could be the results of Primary In addition, he predicted that Macri and Alberto F. will be close to 40%.
Regarding what could happen in the province of Buenos Aires, Germano said that "Axel Kicillof can retain all the votes of Alberto", but it is also possible that Maria Eugenia Vidal will vote in October. "If the average Buenos Aires, who is angry, understands that Vidal is in danger of losing, in October, he could think of his vote and accompany him."
Back in the economy, Buscaglia said the current exchange rate was not delayed. "With this dollar level, it's good," he said. In fact, he pointed out that if Macri wins, there will be an appreciation of the currency. "The monetary base has dropped a lot, it's when Macri wins, that people will ask for more pesos, and there, the BCRA will have to manage an appreciation of the exchange rate," he predicted.
Otherwise, if Alberto Fernández wins, "people will get dollars under the vases," Buscaglia said..
What does the moment when the election is defined in the first round depend on? According to Germano, voters Roberto Lavagna. "You are activated by a definition in the first round if these people nominate the two candidates, but it can also happen to Sergio Mbada, who in 2015 had about 20% in the PASS and in the generals he repeated the same percentage. see if it's not a vote for anger that may change after the primary, "said the chief of isonomy.
"Alberto and Cristina do not give the elector extra security for the undecided to make the jump and vote.The dual command does not work in Argentina and the centrality of Cristina is intact.Alberto can say and promise a lot of things but Cristina goes away and he talks about "cuchuflitos" and "pindonga" and this attracts more public opinion, "concluded Germano.
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