Three decisive weeks for Mauricio Macri

It has never been so far with such a lack of certainty. Not since the resumption of democracy and in an electoral process for leadership positions.

Until a few weeks ago at least, the ruling party confirmed the candidacies in an attempt to re-elect its three personalities. Even that is not among the certainties. Despite all attempts to dispel doubts and dismiss alternative applications. Despite the irrevocable decision of Mauricio Macri to maintain his postulation and to be ready to make every effort to achieve it.

The measures taken last week by the ruling party seek to regain some predictability in an ocean of unforeseen events. That explains a lot of what happened in seven days and everything that happens. Cambiemos key leaders mark the calendar with a menu of options in each hand for different possible (or likely) circumstances. Even the unwanted ones. The fragmented opposition does the same thing.

In the immediate future, Macri undertook to create a "sanitary cordon" around Cristina Kirchner with the certainty decalogue that she tries to sign the "rational" opposition. He is convinced and seeks to convince that the "cause" of instability (financial and political) is the former president and his eventual return, although it is not the name and prefer to call it "electoral uncertainty". This is another of the many euphemisms and neologisms for which he opted in this time of crisis. We must prevent the verb from becoming flesh.

The search for an agreement on the 10 points would be the continuity or the higher phase of mixed missions carried out by pro-government and non-Kirchner Peronists in the United States. It aims to rebadure US government officials and multilateral organizations, investors and opinion leaders by claiming that leaders representing 60% of the electorate agree to decide not to return to the polls. pbaded from isolation and non-respect.

"Mauricio has 20 days to support and consolidate his candidacy," they say in a low voice not to be heard on the first floor of the Casa Rosada, senior officials of the macrista. They do this after hearing the members of the team of Jaime Durán Barba talk about the disturbing findings of their polls and
discussion groups. They are the same members of the management of the macrista who continue to evaluate different alternative plans. They even include martingales with personalities who are in opposition today. For the doubts that the end of the crisis finds them lower and further.

Searching for a fairly stable soil where you can stop is the priority of the hour. Hence the urgency with which the proposal was drawn and the decision of the president himself to take the lead to make it viable and credible. This should not and could not be seen as if it was only the initiative of one of his collaborators that he had left running to check if it was viable, as he often did. There is no time to explore in this area.

In addition, the fact that Macri telephoned the main opposition is an exhibition intended for him and his opponents, his determination to try to climb the tracks, finish his term to perfection and maintain his candidacy. The right of admission to presidential offices applies to the holders of bad forecasts.

But nothing is simple when there are candidates in dance. Much less when the first price of the policy is at stake and requires the help of those who want to compete to keep the place that is in trouble. This complicates the dual purpose of the project: to give stability to the government while, at the same time, this stability is the main beam to support the search for presidential reelection with chances. Ideally, you can be the enemy of the possible.

The Decalogue fell like a bomb of fragmentation of delayed effects. On the positive side, he showed the government to take the initiative and change the focus of the public agenda after months of being at the mercy of unforeseen events. At the same time, it changed the dynamics of the opponents.

Fear of radicalism

However, he also revealed the extreme fragilities of the president, his government and the ruling coalition, whose flaws have been uncovered. It was almost instantly the appearance of radical partners claim to expand the alliance, to add other leaders and to open the candidacies.

"We must pay attention to what is happening in radicalism, everything is very complicated," warned with concern some of the most important participants of the campaign table of macrismo. Macri's favorable predictions of what will happen at the end-of-month party convention are beginning to waver. Another certainty that moves away.

The badistance of Rogelio Frigerio and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta at the presentation of the book of Martin Lousteau enrolled as part of the containment operation and is not simply a gesture in favor of the "lonely". one of the numbers that the President praises nowadays.

The mistrust, resquemores and impediments of the main opposition candidates who were asked to join the Decalogue also made the first meters difficult.

Roberto Lavagna and Sergio Mbada rushed to ask questions and set conditions. For them, the generosity mentioned by Macri to publicize the project is not an attribute of the president or his government, but a requirement that applies only to the opponents.

However, they do not reject it categorically and even believe that the proposal can be improved and that the appeal can be extended. Even Mbada himself, who was perhaps the most "cold and distant" of the communications that Macri has been confronted with, does not rule out that an agreement can be reached. His adviser Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubi, who wears it with great firmness, will have a lot of work to prevent him from losing control, as in his day.

Lavagna and the tigrense cross a gorge. They seek on the one hand to preserve their political aspirations and on the other hand not to be accused of being co-responsible for a possible collapse. With the latter plays the government and has for this the support of several governors, plus the help provided by Miguel Pichetto and Juan Manuel Urtubey. Although Macri is the one who has the most to lose if he calculates miscalculations and finds no effective methods.

For the opposition, time is also a rare and elusive capital. If we talk to Cambiemos, there are 20 decisive days for the candidacy of Macri, we speak of Peronism of a trip of three weeks, on several scales. During this period, the stage and the cast that will arrive at the STEP will be defined.

In just a week, there will be several signs. Next Thursday, Cristina Kirchner will find her voice during the presentation of her book. Despite the title of the work, he is not supposed to be honest about his candidacy, but he gives a lot more clues. The dedication and care he has given to this act add to expectations. Those who occupy the first rows have been meticulously chosen by her, as well as those who do not wish, so as not to tarnish the staging.

On Sunday evening, after the dismissed triumph and predicted by Juan Schiaretti in Córdoba, the third sector, which is still scattered and does not develop to become an alternative (federal or unitary), would begin to be commissioned.

Barely nine days later, Cristina's first oral trial would start if she was late. Unpublished broadcast there is for a campaign.

And before the end of the month, the UCR will make its convention. An event that does not only concern the ruling coalition of which it is a part. Opponents wait with attention and aspire to influence.

In the middle, the health of the fragile financial situation will have to be followed almost second by second. Today may not be a great day. The new measures taken by Trump that seem to end the truce that existed in the trade battle with China had warned government officials last night.

The news could not dilute the little illusions with which government supporters hold their breath. On Friday night, prominent Macrista executives hoped that the US Treasury would help increase the battery of resources needed to support the peso and improve the Argentine market rating. It would not be the first time that Trump has offered his friend Mauricio antidotes against poisons he is inoculated. Nobody should have confidence. It can be deadly sometimes.

We will have to be prepared. It will take three weeks to pure dizziness.