"Today, we are wrong, but we are well"

The economist Miguel Ángel Broda said that "we are wrong, but we are doing well", because although Argentina has been in recession for seven months, the situation is more optimistic than the year last, when the crisis broke out.

"The second agreement with the Monetary Fund has saved us from greater evils, it is an emergency program to achieve elections without crisis and, given its objectives, it is achieved," said the economist.

He added: "Today, we are bad, but we are doing well, we are bad in that the margin has stopped falling, the fourth quarter GDP of 2018 was 6.9% lower than the the first of this year, The economy has experienced three quarters of recession, with an annualized growth rate of 9%, it is a recession, over the last seven years, three times stronger than that of the 2012 recession , 14 and 16 ".

According to Broda, "as part of an emergency program, our situation is significantly better than in the crisis unleashed last year". And it shows that GDP, consumption and imports have stopped falling.

Regarding inflation, he pointed out that "this one is much higher than in the first quarter of last year" and that "the social indicators have deteriorated". But he stressed that "the budget deficit and the external current account have been considerably reduced".

The economist pointed out that the country should have a real exchange rate higher than the current rate, which remains stable because "the program of the Monetary Fund and the objective of the government that believes that, if there is no Exchange crisis, the elections will be winning ""

"If anything worries me, it's because of the appreciation of the peso. Today, it is revalued by 16% more than in September, which I do not like it, "he said in an interview with Infobae.

He also stressed that "maybe after June, monetary policy will be less contractual and tax policy will be a little more contractive during the year".

"This puts a wind before the economic recovery, so the reactivation will be moderate because although possible, because the inflation rate is falling, the real wage stops falling or even records a slight rise and payroll , and perhaps the private consumption that has collapsed, found their floor between December and January, according to our forecasts.

Broda also noted that "we are likely to see a little more lending capacity on the supply side and that we are logically seeing a little more demand."

With regard to the effect of "trail" of 2018, he said that, according to his consulting firm, Economic Letter, they expect that the year s & # 39; Finished with a drop in the economy of 1.5%, with a previous negative drag of 3.1%.

"There is a recovery in the course of the year, clearly, today, I dare not say that the zero that the government says impossible to achieve, it is not our forecasts but good in this phase of reactivation that seems to enter the economy, a lot of things happen, because for and against, the macroeconomic policy will be contractive, as monetary policy, "he added.

Regarding the upcoming elections, he said that they saw "a great opportunity for the next president, because they will inherit less important imbalances and probably also that the world will grow less and that we have great needs of funding".

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