Towards a world populated by elderly people | In 2050, Amé …

Latin America will be one of the regions with the lowest population growth until 2050, while the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double and India will outpace China in as the most populous country, according to a United Nations report. From here, experts estimate that the world will have 9 billion inhabitants. Although the population is growing, it will be getting older.

The international agency has calculated that "the world's population will grow from the current 7.7 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050", but that the regions with the lowest population growth rate will be Latin America (18%), the South East Asia and East Asia (3 for Europe and North America (2%) .This reduction in the continent's population means that, for the United Nations, a historic trend will be re-established in the region, where the number of inhabitants tripled between 1950 and 2019.

According to the report, the region will reach "a peak of nearly 678 billion people in 2058 and will eventually fall to 680 billion for 2100". "Trends in the world's population are largely determined by fertility trends, based on the average number of births per woman throughout their lives, a figure that has declined significantly over the past decades," he said. said the UN officials in the document.

In the case of Latin America, the fertility rate was 3.3 in 1990, 2 in 2019 and "it is estimated at 1.7 in 2050". The report also notes that in 2018, "for the first time in history", there are more adults over 65 (or older) than children under five years old. This, they say, is due to increased life expectancy and declining birth rates. This year, one in 11 – or 9% of the world's population – is 65 years of age or older and it is expected that by 2050, one in six will belong to this age group. This will represent 16% of the world's population.

By 2050, the number of adults aged 65 and over will double in Latin America. The UN paper noted that one of the benefits of the "recent decline in fertility" is that it has resulted in "faster growth of the working-age population, between 25 and 64 years of age ". This growth "creates opportunities to accelerate economic growth," but if governments want to "take advantage of this" demographic dividend, "" warn them of the international organization, "they will have to" invest in education and training. health, especially for young people, and create favorable conditions for sustained economic growth ".

Similarly, world life expectancy is expected to reach 77.1 years by 2050. In 1990, it was expected at 64.2 years and 72.6 years in 2019. However, according to the report, " considerable differences remain between countries. In 2019, people born in the poorest countries live 7.4 years less than the world average, because "infant and maternal mortality rates remain high, as well as violence, conflict and the impact persistent of the epidemic of poverty. " HIV. "

According to the UN, migration can be an important factor in reducing the population in some countries. Since 2010, they warned, the population of "27 countries or areas" decreased by 1% or more and "this was caused by low levels of fertility and, in some places, by rates of emigration high ".

These migrants should come from ten countries – including Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, Syria, Venezuela and Myanmar – and be welcomed by fourteen others. "Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine will experience a net influx of migrants throughout the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by excess child mortality, "they said.