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I write this column from São Paulo, as part of Profile Brazil, on a two-day scale before going to Portugal, where Caras magazine is also the biggest broadcast in this country and has developed a signal of cable like E! Entertainment in Portuguese. But the local agenda does not allow me to escape the Argentine crisis because I receive calls, WhatsApp messages, letters, alarmed acquaintances because they do not see the conditions that will arrive on October 27th. and even less so on December 10 without much difficulty.

It is perhaps for this reason that they all look like our mirrors: Bolsonaro de Macri and Antonio Costa (Prime Minister of Portugal) of Alberto Fernández. More similarities between Lula and Cristina Kirchner, or between judges Sergio Moro and Claudio Bonadio.

Governments like Macri end up being interregnos to limit the dominant political culture

Having lived in Brazil at the end of the last century twice, one year at a time, reinforced my Hegelian perception of history. I felt in this country what Hegel could call the spirit of history, a logic that transcends the absolute will of its leaders, because with a few years of difference, "events" similar to those of Argentina occurred: end of the dictatorship, democracy, hyperinflation, convertibility of the peso or the real dollar, privatization, devaluation, center-left governments, universal badistance schemes, exponential growth due upward price of raw materials, end of the model, prosecutions for corruption in the main politicians, the arrival of the right governments. That's why I find it hard to believe that Kirchner, Lula, Macri or Bolsonaro, to name only the most recent ones, are at the origin of the changes and I incline to think that presidents are bodies that the history uses to follow the course of their societies. multiple interactions of present and past power.

Last week, I reflected the Kirchnerism in the mirror of Chavismo in Venezuela and the show With the Mallet compared to 6.7.8: the one broadcast in our country was similar to the BBC against the Venezuelan. How could this rich democracy of the 80s, enjoying greater oil wealth, the favorite place of the Argentineans who migrated to South America for their quality of life, their freedom and their possibilities of development, become this country? current reality closer to poor countries of Africa? And the explanation provided by the many testimonies we have of our emigrants in Argentina is that it is a long process that lasted decades in which they descended the markets successively, thus overcoming the resistance of many people who finished to feel that "it was no longer their country" and emigrate. , being proportionally more numerous those who have less autonomy.

In 2019, twenty successive Chavez governments were completed, including three by Hugo Chavez (1999-2013) and one by Nicolás Maduro. The difference with Argentina and Brazil is that after three consecutive presidencies, the Kirchnerists in Argentina and the Workers Party of Brazil, none could reach the fourth consecutive presidential term, this which can be considered as a cause or consequence of the democratic defense mechanisms of the Union. each country, appealing to each "of what was available" to meet the need for alternation (the "ruse of reason" of which Hegel spoke). Macri and Bolsonaro have in common that, many years before being elected, the majority of citizens thought that a person with these characteristics could never become president of his country and that no money would be forthcoming. among them would have had the opportunity to access the presidency if it had not existed. the fatigue of a part of society after 12 years of hegemony of the same party.

The son of the oldest businessman most questioned in a country with anticapitalist tendencies such as Argentina and a former soldier thrown out of the famous indiscipline, because every time he opens his mouth, he embarrbades most of his Compatriots in Brazil could not be presidents to another story They were expressions of the collective destiny of their societies, "used" as tools of transition to eliminate what threatened to become an eternal hegemony.

That they can return, as it is actually as much as possible in Argentina, but never in the same way, not even, because the four years of a government of the opposite sign have reinforced some antibodies (and weakened from others), warning about their obscurities, which they had continued to power, they could have overlapped.

There are many Argentines who declare that they will leave the country if Kirchnerism triumphs again, imagining a repetition of the same evil or even worse, reinforced by revenge. Brazil has always been more of a composer than Argentina, but after the Supreme Court, equivalent to our Supreme Court, overturned Sergio Moro's sentence to Petrobras' president, Aldemir Bendine, last week, he was not the only one. It is not excluded that Lula may aspire to the same thing and be released enough time to be the candidate who will compete with Bolsonaro when he will contest his reelection and win the victory. It would result for Bolsonaro the same thing as Macri: to have been a transition between the return and the return of the same political sector. But even in this case, neither Macri nor Bolsonaro would have been useless in historical terms, but the link that history has required to follow his path, warning the center-left governments that, although their societies prefer most of the time to be governed by them, they are willing to reach extremes, which alternatives, without counterbalance, could reach

Macri and Bolsonaro's role is to force Kirchnerism and, later, the Workers' Party to question the mistakes that led to their defeat. And, to be able to come back, they must look different from what they were. And if in practice they were not, come back to face its consequences.

The comparison with Brazil before Lula, when the dollar and country risk have exploded, reveals the common conditions

Portugal is another example of a country where the same party has returned after another transition during which it had to adjust the economy during the economic crisis in the center-right, with Pedro Pbados Coelho as prime minister, who had to fall a gross product of 2.3. %, an increase in unemployment of 12 to 16%, the debt increase of 108% of the gross proceeds to 131, so that once the adjustment is complete, the same socialist party comes back, but already modernized, having learned from his mistakes.

The sad task entrusted the story to Macri. He is comforted by the fact that his father died without seeing his son in the collapse of his political capital nor confirmed his suspicions that he was not sufficiently prepared to be president.