Troops, repression and blockade: why Putin has returned to his most extreme version

PARIS.– Massive deployment of troops on the border with Ukraine and in Crimea, blockade of the Black Sea waterways, violent repression of the demonstration in favor of dissident Alexei Navalny, unrestricted support for his neighbor, the dictator of Belarus , Alexander Lukashenko, apocalyptic speeches against “Those who dare to cross the red lines” established by Russia …

Despite some clues, so far it is unclear what the Russian president, Vladimir Poutine, continues with his colossal show of force in recent weeks.

Perhaps he is trying to intimidate the Ukrainian leadership into making concessions, such as the formal autonomy of the Donbass region in the east of the country, where Moscow is funding and arming thousands of pro-dissidents. Russia since 2015, when it also annexed the Ukrainian peninsula. Crimea. Or maybe he is actually preparing for a future assault. Admittedly, on Thursday, after a dangerous rise in tensions with the United States and the European Union (EU), the Russian Defense Minister announced the end of the deployment of some 150,000 soldiers gathered on the Russian-Ukrainian border, including Moscow. has always described. “Military maneuvers”. It remains to be seen whether this withdrawal will be total.

“In the past, under similar circumstances, Moscow has always left behind a significant number of soldiers,” says expert Marc Galleoti, honorary professor at University College London’s School.

His State of the Nation address on April 21 also offered some clues. Putin has promised benefits for the masses and lightnings for his enemies. He once again insisted on his Western conspiracy theory to assassinate Lukashenko. And while warning that the organizers of provocations against Russia “would regret it because they have not regretted anything for a long time”, his police force violently repressed popular demonstrations in support of Navalny, imprisoned after being poisoned by his security services and sentenced to nearly three years in prison in a mock trial.

For some observers, the Russian behavior on the Ukrainian border was simply a “military gesticulation”. For Joe Biden’s new administration to take note of Russian military capabilities as future relations between Washington and Moscow are sketched, as pro-Western Ukrainian lobbies increasingly seek support from the EU and the US.

“This is called the heaviest coercive diplomacy. But the worst we can hope for is more violence along the contact line, ”Galleoti analyzes.

The situation in Ukraine, and in particular Kiev’s demand to join NATO, represents for Putin a real casus belli: an unacceptable interference in the space which traditionally belonged to the Soviet Union, and which, according to him, would lead to the containment of Russia’s Black Sea by the Atlantic Alliance. Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey belong to NATO. Georgia and Ukraine dream of entering.

On April 6, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on NATO to speed up his country’s entry plans, the Kremlin warned that such an incorporation would only “worsen the situation.”

In this context, the geopolitical situation that Putin faces is not the best. In recent days, an icy wind has even blown over the special relationship he had until now with his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, to whom he was united by a form of cooperation, sometimes hostile, other cordial. Although Erdogan and Putin have managed to agree on distant theaters of operations, such as in Syria, they now have serious difficulties reconciling interests in the Black Sea, where Turkey’s position seems closer to that of its Western partners.

Moscow is worried, for example, about the intensification of military cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey. Kiev has just acquired Turkish drones for its armed forces, which will surely be used against pro-Russian rebels in Dombas. But the worst gesture of all was Erdogan’s reaffirmation of his support for Ukraine’s NATO candidacy. In response, Moscow decided to suspend its air links with Turkey for a month and a half, officially “for health reasons”.

Another argument in favor of a simple military “gesticulation” is the resistance of Russian public opinion to a major conflict. This is the position of Timothy Fyre, author of Weak Strongman: The Limits of Putin’s Power in Russia. “Russian public opinion is against any form of military intervention in eastern Ukraine. If there is a loss of life, it could cause an adverse reaction, ”he says. “A more plausible scenario would be to install Russian peacekeepers, under the pretext of protecting Ukrainian citizens who have received passports from the Russian government and who live in areas controlled by pro-Russian rebel forces,” he explains. .

For Fyre, it’s a tactic that could be sold well to Russian public opinion, at a time when Putin is, internally, much weaker than it appears. “His previous adventures in Ukraine came when the Russian economy was in dire straits and opinion polls needed encouragement,” he says. Today something similar is happening. Favorable opinions are reduced: only 25% of Russians support their party, while the pro-Navalny protests in January, were the most important of the last decade.

At a time when new bilateral relations are to be defined, the weakness of the Russian president must be a major concern rather than an enthusiasm for the West. “Moscow is the most prolific producer of instability on the borders of Europe and the most energetic generator of problems in wealthy democracies, funding extremist parties, spreading false information and discord.”, says Fyre.

Much less important than China – both economically and on climate change – Russia remains a fundamental player for the world. The decisions taken by the West will not only set a precedent: they will also be a warning for other autocracies.