Trump (reloaded), reserves, IMF and trade war: where can the dollar go?

The data that may be used to anticipate what might happen in the next few hours is that the The rest of the emerging markets in the region also see how the dollar appreciates between 1 and 2% as far as their own currencies are concerned.

So, the BCRA could "let it run", at least up to $ 47 Keeping in mind that there is not, at least in absolute terms, a strong national cause that has increased the upward pressure, and yes of the other an international, although in any case, it will be necessary to include in the equation the the reverse of the change in the election in Córdoba.

China just said that it will raise tariffs US imports in response to the same measure as that approved by the United States last week. Properly speaking, Beijing will raise tariffs of 5,140 US products from the current 10% to 25%, will enter into force on 1 June and will affect imports valued at US $ 60 billion.

"The American agronomy is punished (avocados, sugar, wheat, chicken and turkey), which is however the only one to register a surplus with China and where Trump has all its political wealth.The Chinese hit Trump where it hurts the most "said Agustin Bahl, director of MT Capital.

Bahl recalls that Washington had also increased tariffs on Chinese imports by 10 to 25 percent last week for $ 200,000 million and that even the two powers had closed their eleventh round of negotiations without any agreement.

A report from MT Capital says Monday should also take as a reference that the firm MSCI will point out that Argentina will be part of its Emerging Markets Index as expected, it will be indicated which Argentine companies will be included in the index (participation in the index is estimated at 0.3%).

In any case, the background concerns the performance of the BCRA's reserves and its impact on the "Shield" that the government seems to have closed with the Minister of Foreign AffairsMe with the wink of Trump. The words of the US president in favor of Macri to bolster his candidacy are read as Washington's predisposition to activate badistance lines in dollars if necessary.

An alternative is the Expanded Fund (something more, but in the longer term) that the IMF itself could promote. It is granted against commitment to structural reforms in the medium term (work, social security) and offers repayment terms of 4 to 10 years for loans already contracted, which ultimately last longer than the waiting period of 3 to 5 years.

The other letter, in which Cambiemos has high expectations when arriving at Trump, is the Exchange Stabilization Fund – ESF granted by the US Treasury. It's a Emergency funds to buy and sell currencies during interventions. It is used to finance countries and foreign monetary authorities. In 1994, $ 20 billion of ESF was used for loans in Mexico. You do not need permission from the US Congress

In the last few hours, the United States has announced the approval of a loan of $ 45 million over 9 years. It is to extend the logistics infrastructure through the OPIC, ie the Corporation for Private Investment Abroad.

There are 16 other proposals on the waiting list: the equivalent of $ 5.2 billion.

Tecpetrol and Transportadora de Gas del Sur are among the following investments: US $ 350 million (gas pipeline); Astris infrastructure: 250 million US dollars (Buenos Aires-Mendoza highway); YPF Luz: $ 50 million (wind power) in Santa Cruz and Genneia: $ 188 million (solar and wind power plant) in Chubut.