Tunisia goes to elections with uncertain results | This is p …

Nearly seven million Tunisians vote for the second time in democracy to their president, at the beginning of a decisive election month for their fragile and young transition, since the fall of the dictatorship in 2011. 24 candidates are presented at an election in which an uncertain and open end is expected. Due to the sudden death of President Beji Caid Essebsi in power last July, the elections had to move forward, leaving chaos on the electoral calendar: the parliamentary elections will take place in three weeks.

In this first round, candidates of a different ideological profile are in agreement. Only two women compete: lawyer Abir Moussi, defender of the nostalgic dictatorship, and the former Minister of Tourism, Salma Elloumi, linked to the traditional oligarchy. However, only five of the candidates seem to have clear options to access a second round, which would take place before October 13 if none of the candidates gets more than 50% of the vote in Sunday's elections.

Although you believe that officials are not allowed by law, some filtered by foreign institutes grant the majority to a controversial tycoon of populist television: Nabil Karoui. The candidate is currently in prison for an alleged crime of escape and money laundering. In the last few hours, the Tunisian Court of Cbadation declared itself "incompetent" to deal with Karoui's case, dismissed his appeal out of prison and was therefore unable to vote. A former collaborator of the ruling Nidaa Tunis party and the late president Essebsi, the billionaire has found support in the population through his visits to rural and disadvantaged areas, where he mixed anti-system rhetoric and distributed medicine the cameras of his chain. However, it raises doubts for several reasons: its mobilization capacity is low, because it has no party structure; He spent a good part of the campaign in prison. and focused his speech on the denunciation of an alleged conspiracy of power against him.

Meanwhile, the first force in Parliament and winner of the municipal elections of 2018, the conservative Islamic party Ennahda presents for the first time a candidate for the presidency. His choice is the lawyer and jurist Abdelfatah Mouro, one of the founders of the movement of the seventies and the current president of Parliament.

The surprise could come from the independent candidate Kaïes Said, a prestigious jurist, in favor of the death penalty and homobaduals, who are reverberating among the youngest. Seventh place in the polls before the start of the campaign, some place him in the second position, which would give him access to the second round. For his part, the country's Prime Minister, the liberal Youssef Chahed, said on Thursday on the radio that there were only three parties, his own, Nabil Karoui and the Islamist Ennahdha. "The rest does not exist," he said.

In this context, the experts agree that the economic crisis – the main concern of Tunisians – and the way in which youth voting will behave will be the key to an uncertain and tight outcome, which will surely influence October parliamentary elections, from which the new Parliament and the new government will come out. The return to democracy after the revolution in 2011 brought freedom of expression but not economic prosperity and the population is mainly concerned with unemployment, low wages and inflation.

To further complicate the Tunisian political scene, while this presidential campaign ends, another begins next Friday, before the parliamentary elections of October 6. The initial schedule provided for the December presidential election, after the legislative elections, but the death of President Caid Essebsi in July upset the deadline. Therefore, Tunisians will vote for their MPs between the two rounds of the presidential election.

Tunisia experienced a revolution in 2011 that caused the fall of Zine el Abidine Ben Ali's dictatorship and, since then, followed by democratic means, with the holding of several elections. The break in 2011 has resulted in freedom of expression but not economic prosperity and the population is mainly concerned with unemployment, low wages and inflation. The prerogatives of the president are still limited because the 2014 constitution, which wanted to transform decades of personal power, gives particular importance to parliament.