Ukraine and Russia, uncomfortable allies to fierce enemies

The links between Russia and Ukraine, two Slav nations united by historical, political and cultural ties, have had their ups and downs in the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, of which the death certificate was signed on December 8, 1991 by the leaders of these countries. two countries and their Belarusian neighbor. The status of the Crimean Peninsula and the powerful Soviet Black Sea Fleet and the incalculable ambitions of Ukraine to join the Western bloc have become the most thorny issues of bilateral relations between Moscow and Kiev. However, the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994, which authorized Ukraine to accede to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and the Cooperation and Friendship Agreement signed by Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma in May 1997, build a relatively stable relationship over the next two decades.

Russia's compliance with Ukraine's borders, including its sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula and the city of Sevastopol – the base of the Black Sea Fleet – and Kiev's commitment to maintaining its military neutrality and not integrating the structure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been the motto of change to achieve a delicate balance between the two neighbors. To this easing process was added the lease to Russia of the Sevastopol naval base for an initial period of 20 years, which would then be extended by 25 years from its expiry date, in 2017. Everything would remain in suspense after the revolt that took place in Kyiv – called "Euromed" – which caused, in February 2014, the fall of the unpopular president Viktor Yanukovych, considered too "pro-Russian" by the protagonists of the movement. Events such as the "coup d'etat" and the granting of asylum to Yanukovych, who had refused to resign and who, a few days later, was already settled in the Russian city of Rostov -on the Don, gave a press conference in which he declared that he was still the legitimate president of Ukraine "and that his country was at the mercy of a" band of " Ultranationalists and neo-Nazis ".

Russia 's decision to recover Crimea was based on the picture of instability and uncertainty in Ukraine following the February 2014 uprising.

The consequence of this move would be the deep deterioration of relations between Ukraine and Russia. In a dialogue with DEF, badyst Marcelo Montes, a political scientist, doctor of international relations and professor at the National University of Villa María (UNVM), explains how the fragile balance that existed between Kiev and Moscow has been broken , after Euromaidan, "After In 2014, Ukraine embarked on a huge provocative policy towards the Russian-speaking inhabitants of the Southeast, which represent 10% of the country's population, and took a series totally absurd measures, such as the adoption of the Ukrainian language as a compulsory language in all countries, the country, higher taxes for the eastern region and the discretionary designation of totally unpopular governors in these parts of the country. Table of instability and uncertainty has led Russia to make the decision to recover the Crimea and consolidate the area of ​​the naval garrison that was installed by a lease signed with Ukraine after the fall of the Soviet Union ".

The referendum held on 16 March 2014 in the Crimean peninsula, in which the local population voted overwhelmingly for membership of the Russian Federation, was the first response to the new situation in Kiev. The formal incorporation of this unclaimed territory and the city of Sevastopol into Russian borders would take place in record time: just two days after the referendum, whose results were quickly recognized by the Russian government, the Accession Treaty would be signed. During the official ceremony that took place on March 19 in Moscow, Putin did not hesitate to say that "in the hearts and minds of the people, Crimea has always been part of Russia and this firm conviction, based on truth and justice, has been transmitted from generation to generation. "

With the secession of Crimea already consumed, the next point of tension was the proclamation of the independence of the so-called "popular republics" of Donetsk and Lugansk, composed mainly of Russian-speakers, in May 2014. The Minsk Protocol , signed in September 2014 and its successor known as Minsk II, signed in February 2015, marked a principle of agreement and ceasefire. However, the military situation was practically frozen and, although there were prisoner exchanges – the most important of them took place in December 2017 – the political solution never arrived. the separatists have maintained their de facto power over the territory and the Parliament of Ukraine has never come to enforce the legislation enacted to allow the "autonomous government" of the two secessionist regions.

The latter is a key element for a possible détente and an approach between the Ukrainian state and the separatists. In this sense, Marcelo Montes reiterates some proposals for the solution of the conflict: "There should be a real pacification, a deposition of arms by the rebels, the cessation of provocations and threats of intervention by the army. Ukrainian, constitutional reform that tends to federalization and a special status for the southeastern regions of the country. Asked about a possible integration of Ukraine into the European Union (EU) – with which Kiev signed an badociation agreement in March 2014 which entered into force in September 2017, he said : "Russia does not oppose the termination by Ukraine by joining the European Union, however, in the current situation in Ukraine, with salaries of $ 300 per month and a economy with very low productivity, this possibility is not realistic at all. "The situation of the bloc of the European Union, two weeks before the decisive elections of the European Parliament during which the bloc of Eurosceptic forces could significantly increase the number of votes that it makes, makes any kind of negotiation still more difficult.

The solution to the conflict with the rebel republics of southeastern Ukraine involves, among other things, a constitutional reform that tends to a system of federal government and a special status for Donetsk and Lugansk.

Finally, the arrival of the picturesque Volodymyr Zelenskiy to the Ukrainian presidency, actor without political experience that embodies the sufficiency of the population with the traditional political clbad, raises many questions. Referring to the first steps taken by the president-elect in the elections of 21 April – during which he defeated President Petro Poroshenko, who has been in power since May 2014 – Mr Montes said: "His first steps have been positive. visited the patriarchs of the three main churches of the country and, while maintaining its penchant for Europe and the West, has not made any negative statements towards Russia ". The main accusations brought by his detractors against Zelenskiy are his alleged links with the oligarch Igor Kolomoisky, strongly interested in the banking and media sectors, who decided to exile in Switzerland and later in Israel Poroshenko in March 2015. "Unfortunately, after the fall of the Soviet Union, there has been a collusion in much of the eastern European countries between the former political elite, the security agencies and the economic power of the oligarchs ", summarizes Montes, who admits that" the current situation is not very optimistic ".