United States helpless and without plan B for Venezuela – 01/05/2019

When "Operation Guaidó" was launched by surprise in January, the United States was banking on a quick resolution take Nicolás Maduro out of power. But what we call here "momentum", or the initial impulse of events, has been blurred with a series of offensives that have not flourished and we are starting to talk to Washington about a strategy that seems to fail, that does not have a plan B and that shows the image of a helpless United States.

On the initiative of those days of Juan Guaidó, United States seeks to regain the lost momentumbut there is no vision of success either, nor is the humanitarian aid operation at the border a few weeks ago. Time goes by and Maduro continues. The White House has set the tone of the speech amidst the tension of these hours, given that most of the army, at least for the moment, remains loyal to its boss.

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Secretary of State Mike Pompeo toughened the rhetoric by saying that a military intervention "It's possible, if necessary". "The President (Trump) has been crystal clear and incredibly consistent, military action is possible, and if necessary, that's what the United States will do," said Pompeo. But beyond words, in the region definitely there is no consensus for a military offensive.

The day before, he had declared that the White House had arranged with Maduro's top officials in view of an exit from power. It is obvious that this strategy has not helped much: not only the fact that these characters remain with their leader, but the Trump envoy for Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, said that these officials "They turned off their cell phones" and they do not help them anymore.

Some of Donald Trump's allies are already beginning to show their desperation. The statement of Brazilian General Augusto Heleno, Minister of the Cabinet of Institutional Security and close adviser to President Jair Bolsonaro, skeptical of the uprising on Tuesday, has attracted attention. "A disorganized movement that looked like a fight between football fans". A few hours later, Bolsonaro himself was trying to calm himself down and said that the uprising it was not a "defeat" because he had shown "cracks" in the diet.

"The Trump administration hoped that with Juan Guaidó's oath of 23 January, Maduro's departure would come quickly.As it did not happen the first week, he quickly applied oil sanctions. Three months later, they are still waiting. There was never a plan B or another policy to follow if the government does not fall apart, "he said. Clarin Christopher Sabatini, professor of international politics at Columbia University, who follows the case of Venezuelans.

"Now, they stagnate, double the same strategy, while their tools of sanctions become less and less. Visas of more than 600 people have been revoked, their accounts have been frozen and the "nuclear" option of an oil embargo has already been used. The time is now on Maduro's side, but unfortunately, the suffering of the government will be even more painful in Venezuela and the effects of oil sanctions are now added, "he added.

Sabatini further believes that the harsh words of US officials do not help: "This gave the opposition a false hope that the United States is a savior, and they have raised hopes of military intervention in case everything fails." Both strategies are dangerous and have served to consolidate control of Maduro on power and to create false hopes. "

On the real possibility of a military intervention, Javier Corrales, director of the Amherst College of Political Science, said Clarin What?from Trump, you can expect everything, but we must not forget that his military advisers and members of the Lima group have repeatedly said no to a military invasion. In addition, Trump's instinct is to withdraw and not deploy troops (as in the case of Syria). "

However, the expert warns: "But if, at any given time, someone convinces Trump that an invasion would be easy, quick and inexpensive, the president could risk it." l & # 39; now, no one seems to be doing this approach, at least openly. "

What is certain is that while Washington raises rhetoric and sanctions, Maduro remains in place. For Sabatini, "these statements undermine Washington's international credibility, generating a weak and indecisive image – frankly, it's a strange twist of American diplomacy that not only does it not achieve its goals, but it gives the impression that the United States is powerless. "

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