United States, Venezuela and Ecuador, a fracture line in the Argentine look of the region

While the State Department officials had just sat down to start the discussion, Sergio Massa surprised them with a sentence to stretch the time: "We will not kidnap them anymore." The ghost of Hector Timerman's forceps in Ezeiza, symbol of Cristina Kirchner's bad relationship with Washington, was among the bursts of nervous laughter. "The past is the past," added the visitor, who spoke with the political and economic authorities of the United States as a kind of informal delegate of Alberto Fernández.

The indication that the Peronist candidate has fainted has been to "reorganize the relationship" with the US government, a concept that refers to the past kirchnerist and not to the friendly bond that Mauricio Macri has created, d & # 39; first with Barack Obama, then with Donald Trump. "The link with the United States is too sensitive for us to fall into unchangeable ideologies," said one of Fernández's men. As scientist Federico Merke points out, "the foreign policy of the Front de Tous will be the result of the interaction of their preferences, their legacies and their restrictions, and I fear that the last two leave little room for those. " The big question of this pragmatic view is Brazil, with which the link seems definitely broken since Fernandez visited Lula in prison and spoke verbally with Jair Bolsonaro. The albertist dream of rebuilding a regional policy such as that of the past decade does not have the necessary partners today. You will find complex to reissue a dynamic like that of Unasur, now gone.

Felipe Solá, the likely chancellor if he wins Peronism, supports the
realpolitik in the bilateral relationship with the United States for the obvious reason that Trump is the key to any renegotiation with the IMF. He established a fluid dialogue with the new head of the political section of the US Embassy. In Argentina, Christopher Andino, arrived in the country a month ago, aims to be the operational link with the delegation led by Ambassador Edward Prado.

In parallel, Massa has been working for a long time with Rudolph Giuliani, the former mayor of New York, who, in addition to Trump's lawyer (now facing legal problems from Ukraine), is acting as a "consiglieri", parallel and informal chancellor of the White House. Massa perceived from his political partners in Washington a willingness to collaborate with a possible Fernández government, within the framework of rational cooperation based on national interests. But he also heard US concerns for the region: China's interference and, basically, the situation in Venezuela.

The policy with the Caribbean country is for some Trump referents a clear red line: if Argentina leaves the path drawn by Macri with the direction of Jorge Faurie (Susana Malcorra had been less decisive), the relationship will enter a phase of stagnation That can complicate the renegotiation of the debt. Massa softened them when he spoke of "dictatorship", but Mr Fernandez had announced several days before leaving the Lima Group and proposed to emulate the most important position of Uruguay and Mexico. It is Fernandez himself who spoke of the "critical situation" reflected in Michelle Bachelet's report: 5287 deaths in 2018 under the action of the Nicolás Maduro government and 1569 others in the first five months of this year.

In the Mexico Street bunker, the Caracas regime is not highly esteemed. The warnings of the powerful Diosdado Cabello, when he reminded them that the votes came from Cristina, are still ringing. Venezuela is a huge labyrinth for the Peronist candidate because he knows that his partner will not tolerate the claudication on this issue, but he is at the same time convinced that he should moderate the speech not to ignite Trump. Venezuela threatens to become the first fracture between Fernández and Kirchnerism if they come to power.

Macri sought to deepen these differences by advancing with the recognition of Elisa Trotta, Juan Guaidó's ambassador to Argentina, as the country's official representative and expelling the Maduro delegates. A decision loaded with electoral opportunism. On Friday, shortly before the measure was known, an important government source acknowledged the wear and tear that the Lima group had suffered in its efforts to support the alternative president, whose figure had been significantly diluted in recent months. "We have lobbied with other countries, without proposing measures of force, but it is very difficult, the deterioration is felt and the appropriate time is appropriate for Maduro," the Foreign Ministry acknowledged.

Venezuela this week joined the crisis in Ecuador, unleashed when the Lenin Moreno government announced a withdrawal of subsidies that led to sharp increases in fuel and led to an explosion of streets. Faurie was in permanent contact with the Ambassador in Quito, the Peronist Darío Giustozzi, and met three times with the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Valencia. The government is reflected in Moreno's trials because he understands that he faces the same misunderstanding of Macri. "The president of Ecuador had to make an adjustment to balance the accounts after spending the previous government, and the population, accustomed to subsidies, provoked a revolt backed by agents of Ecuador. [Rafael] Correa and Maduro, "they describe in the Foreign Ministry, and Ecuador has become a witness, a theater of ideological impulse that sweeps across Latin America. a liberal government that seeks to clean up the economy friendly markets and, on the other hand, the street protest for the defense of a populist model, all aggravated by the presence of very active indigenous organizations From the government's point of view, in Quito, the price of gasoline is much more controversial.

Faurie also spoke with another Peronist, Jorge Yoma, ambassador to Lima, to follow the situation in Peru. There, President Martín Vizcarra closed the Congress and convened legislative elections exhausted by Fujimori's obstacles, chaired by Keiko, the former political heiress of the former president. Again, two models in conflict.

During his visit to the offices of US power, Massa also met with representatives of the IMF and investment funds with interests in Argentine debt. There, the cooperative vocation with Argentina prevails even more by desire to recover debts than by gaucho sentimentality. But there is a conflict between them. In the international organization, they demand that private creditors share the costs of Argentina's failures, while bondholders have adopted the "Uruguayan" solution proposed by Fernández, namely a rescheduling of conditions without debt reduction. Some market operators are letting go of investment funds preparing a lawsuit against the IMF for violating their organic charter by lending money to reduce the exchange rate and thus having devalued the price obligations in their possession. This is the same argument that Fernández advanced in the statement that he published after his meeting with Alejandro Werner and Roberto Cardarelli. The candidate suggests in this tension an instrument allowing him to negotiate with the IMF.

In case the polls do not become the source of Macri's expected miracle, Hernán Lacunza plans to advance a renegotiation with the IMF in collaboration with the Fernández team. His idea is to set up a delegation with an economist who nominates the candidate and prevents the transition from complicating the process. For the IMF, this would be a very positive signal, but in Alberto's environment, they stand out from the movement because they attribute to macrismo more willingness to make gestures than to fill them with content.

Whatever the case may be, to clear the way, the minister will be traveling to Washington this week to meet with the agency's technicians. Although concrete results are not expected because the council will not move the coins until the election has been defined, it would be a very negative indicator if it did not respect the schedule of the elections. scheduled meetings. For that, Lacunza resigned from his presence at the IDEA symposium, which takes place this week in Mar del Plata (Fernández either, it is said near him).

The Minister of Finance is cunningly managing his huge concern about the fragile health of the reserves. That's why he breathed when it was known this week that the system's outlets had been downsized. He shares with his ally in the cabinet, Rogelio Frigerio, the priority of reaching the end of the term under reasonable conditions. In this sector of government, pragmatism prevails. Similar to what they say in Fernández's environment when they speak privately about the foreign policy they imagine.